On October 2, 2024, Iranian missile systems are on display next to a banner featuring photographs of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the late Lebanon Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrala on the streets of Tehran, Iran.
Majid Asgaripour | Via Reuters
Iranian property, whether it’s Tehran’s good or very sick, may look quite different in the course of President Donald Trump’s second term.
In an astonishing move, Trump has now expressed his desire to make a deal with Iran several times. Recently, last week’s letter to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for two leaders to “negotiate” the country’s nuclear programme in the Middle East. This contrasted with seven years ago in 2018, when the US was separated from the 2015 nuclear deal, and it plummeted into relations between the US and Iran.
“I want to do a nuclear-free deal with Iran, and then bomb hell,” Trump said in an interview with the New York Post in early February.
But Trump simultaneously rebooted his “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign in oil exporters since taking office. Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei refused to abandon Tehran’s nuclear program and refused to outreach Trump. On Saturday, Iranian leaders denounced attempts by an unknown “bullying government” and vowed that his government would not negotiate under pressure.
Iran is under pressure from its own spiral economy, the dramatic loss of regional allies like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and the weakening of mandatory forces like Lebanon’s Hezbollah following Israel.
But its strength in these regions has been much lower than Trump’s first term, but leverage on another side (the enormous amount of nuclear material it produced) is now much greater.
“Major Concerns” regarding weapon development
Iran is enriching and stockpiling uranium at the highest level ever, urging the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, to issue numerous warnings.
“Iran is the only nuclear-free state that enriches uranium at this level, raising great concerns about the development of potential weapons.” United Nations News Release Please read from March 3rd.
Photos taken on November 10, 2019 show workers at the construction site of Iran’s Bucher Nuclear Power Plant at the official ceremony to begin work for the second nuclear reactor at the facility. Bushehr currently operates imported fuels from Russia, which are closely monitored by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency.
Atta Kenare | AFP via Getty Images
“Iran continues to become richer. [uranium] As part of that leverage building exercise, Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programmes.t Chatham House told CNBC. “The bigger it gets, the more you can offload and it can look like a trade compromise that makes it a line.”
Tehran claims that the programme is intended solely for private energy purposes. However, according to the IAEA, Iran’s nuclear enrichment reached 60% purity. A short technical step from 2015 nuclear deal, and 90% weapons grade purity level.
“A country that is rich at 60% is very serious. Only countries that make bombs have reached this level,” IAEA’s Chiefrafaer Grossi said in 2021.
Under the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has pledged a capping level of 3.67% of enriched uranium at 300 kilograms.
Iran Currently, the material is nearly 22 times larger. Reported by Energy Intelligence, citing the IAEA. And Trump hasn’t ruled out us or Israeli military attacks have not ruled out Iran to prevent the construction of bombs.
Mutual distrust
Still, Iran has a dominant preference for making deals that lift sanctions, says Bijan Khajehpour, an economist and managing partner at Vienna-based consulting firm Eurasian Nexus Partners.
problem?
“There is a deep distrust on both sides,” Kajepur told CNBC. “The public episode of Zelensky, in particular, in the oval office, reminded Iranians that it is difficult to be confident in potential future deals with the Trump administration.”
Ukrainian President Voldimir Zelensky’s visit to the White House unexpectedly escaped from a fierce public clash with Trump in late February.
“On the other side, potential lifting or reducing sanctions will be essential to the trajectory of the Iranian economy,” Khajehpour added.
But the US and Trump now have overwhelming leverage, says Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Democracy Foundation.
“President Trump has significantly more leverage than he first took office against Iran in 2017,” Ben Tareble said. “Israel has degraded some of the Islamic Republic’s regional proxies and structural issues, leaving behind US sanctions, which has left Iran’s economy on its back.”
“And while the idea of increasing Iran’s leverage hasn’t been lost to me, their nuclear card is the only card to play at the moment,” he said.
How long does it take to buy Tehran?
Regarding opposition to Iran’s supreme leader negotiating under pressure, Behnam insisted, “The Islamic Republic always says no until they say yes.” He also argued that the country will “continue to enrich uranium and … increase its highly enriched uranium stockpile as it desires nuclear weapons.”
“Tehran wants to lock Trump in talks, either directly or through Russian mediation,” he said.
“This is not about solving nuclear material, it’s about slowing down maximum pressure and creating obstacles to potential Israeli or American strikes.”
Rather than choosing to attack the deal or have no agreement at all, Chatham House’s Vakir holds, Chatham House’s Vakir is likely choosing a third option to “confuse” and buy time.
It’s both “to make further use of “at a time when the region and the West view Iran as weak” and to gain a better sense of Trump’s priorities and terms for negotiations, she said.
“Iran will also begin negotiations with Europe as a stagnant mechanism for snapback sanctions and continue to maintain the door to negotiation,” Vakil said.
