Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Cohen and quarterback Baker Mayfield deserve credit for what they were able to accomplish this year without the offensive pillars they were hoping for at the beginning of the season. Don’t get me wrong, general manager Jason Richt built this offense relying on a strong offensive line and two top-tier wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. When Evans and Godwin both went down in a Week 8 loss to the Ravens, and it became clear that the offense would be without both of them for at least a month, and in Godwin’s case, all year, it became clear how effective the team was. Many questions arose as to whether he would be able to demonstrate his true potential. I’m at the point of occurrence.
Bucks QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of USA Today
But the Bucks’ offense continued to make strides. The run game improved and Mayfield found a WR1 in tight end Cade Otton. The team was able to do more than tread water during Evans’ month-long absence as he dealt with a hamstring injury.
Since his return, Evans has once again returned as an elite receiver. He has 17 catches for 255 yards and one touchdown over the past three games. His efficiency was particularly impressive, averaging 3.00 yards per route. However, questions remain regarding the Bucs’ passing attack.
The Otton went from being a high-target engine for Tampa Bay’s air attack to more of an afterthought engine. And no other receiver has ever had such an “eye-popping” game. But that doesn’t mean the receiving corps hasn’t found its groove. And that doesn’t mean this group isn’t good enough to be good enough.
Consider this. Since Evans returned to the lineup in Week 12, the Bucs’ top four non-running back receivers have totaled 591 receiving yards on 333 routes, averaging 1.77 yards per route run. That includes not only Otton, but also receivers Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan.
Let’s compare that yds/rr mark to the five top passing attacks in the NFL this season.
The Bucks are right in the middle. Now, Evans is certainly doing the heavy lifting. However, this is not an outlier percentage. His receiving yardage output on this team, while admittedly low, is 43% of that group’s total in a three-game sample. That’s higher than the top receiving percentages in Seattle (36%), Atlanta (31%), or Detroit (36%), but lower than heavily dependent Cincinnati (49%) and Minnesota (48%). There are also things. It is installed in the top receiver. And just to be clear, all of this doesn’t include the running backs’ impact on these teams’ passing attacks.
That’s where the Bucks really shine.
Bucs receiver brings more than meets the eye
During this period, Sterling Shepard emerged as a highly capable WR2, averaging 1.68 yards per route run while displaying explosiveness on and off the cut and an aggressive mindset at the catch point. He also did a solid job taking over the WR screen role in Liam Cohen’s offense. Despite his small size, he makes seven of his nine catch opportunities and averages 6.7 targets per game.
Bucks WR Sterling Shepard – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Jalen McMillan has had his big break. After making a clutch catch in overtime against the Panthers in Week 13, McMillan tied career highs with seven targets and four catches last week against the Raiders. He also set a career high with two touchdowns.
This game brought his total yards per route run to 1.12 after his bye week and put a solid arrow on his outlook going forward. McMillan is getting more comfortable on offense, and it shows in his route running lately. His pace looks much improved and he looks more confident in his cuts.
There’s an improved rapport between him and Baker Mayfield, and you can see him building a rapport with the quarterback. He’ll still need to work on his ability to catch contact, as it’s nearly impossible to consistently win in separation at the NFL level, and I don’t think he has the necessary ceiling to do so. But it looks like the Bucks can start trusting him as a solid WR3 going forward.
Cade Otton is the wild card. Some may be surprised to learn that his 1.32 yds/rr over the past three weeks is in line with his season total and is over 30% better than either of his first two seasons in the league. There may be. But things are starting to click considering he’s able to reach a career-high 640 yards in three games over the course of the season.
Bucks TE Cade Otton – Photo courtesy of USA Today
The Bucks have been using Otto a little differently lately. His average target depth this season is a career-low 5.7 targets. But in two of the past three weeks, that number has been above nine, and last week it jumped to 12.3. He may not be seeing the same number of targets, but his 15.0 yards per catch shows he’s making it count when he gets the ball. are.
Otto absolutely needs to improve his reliability in order to return to a higher volume part of the offense. Pro Football Focus credited him with seven drops during the season. This is tied for fourth-highest mark in the NFL. And PFF is famously a generous scorer in this particular category. Realistically, his total drops should be around 10-12. His drop rate of 10.9% ranks seventh in the league among eligible players.
Liam Cohen talked about that last week when Adam Slivon of the Pewter Report asked him about getting Otton more involved in the offense.
“Well, I think he needs to catch the ball a little more consistently,” Cohen said. “I think he knows that. We’ve got to keep putting him in favorable games and give him more chances, but when the ball comes, he’s ready to make those plays.” I have to check if it’s there.”
sum greater than parts
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
These are not the big name brand threats that they used to be. There’s no Chris Godwin beyond Mike Evans. No Rob Gronkowski. There is no Antonio Brown. But this isn’t the 2020 Bucs, who had to rely on elite talent at the pass-catcher position to win on offense.
The run game takes a huge load off the shoulders of this group. Bucs as a pass catcher takes an additional burden off. And Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, and Sterling Shepard are more than capable of carrying what’s needed given the weight they’ll have to carry. We asked this question frankly. “Who will step up?” In the past.
But here’s the problem.
They already have the necessary degree of ability. And this group still has room to grow. That’s very exciting.
