To say the Bucks’ season has been a roller coaster so far would be a perfectly fair assessment. And they are just five games into the campaign. So far, only one game seems to have gone “as planned.” Tampa Bay’s Week 1 win over the Washington Commanders didn’t rock the football world.
Since then, the Bucks have experienced highs and lows week after week, enough to warrant an EKG on a tachycardia patient. He had a surprising win against Detroit and then had a solid performance against Denver. Tampa Bay then capped off its current 3-2 schedule with a big win against the Eagles, but fell apart late against the Falcons.
The inconsistent nature of the team’s game-to-game results and the relative shortness of the season thus far have led to a lot of confusion about what’s right and what’s wrong with regard to not only the current team composition, but also the short-term and long-term composition of the team. It can cause you to overreact about what is going on. – Future outlook for each position group. So, with 30% of the regular season remaining, we look at each position group from both a short-term and long-term perspective while the Bucks try to get healthy with a mini-bye after getting emotional. I thought I’d like to see it. thursday night football game.
Today we’ll be looking at wide receivers and tight ends. The attacking and defensive teams will appear tomorrow.
wide receiver
There are few pass-catching duos as productive as the tandem of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Through five games, the Bucs’ top two receivers are averaging a combined 2.07 yards per route run. That ranks seventh in the NFL among each team’s top two route runners. Evans and Godwins combined for 132.4 receiving yards per game, the sixth-most in the league.
Bucks WR Chris Godwin – Photo by Cliff Welch P/R
The two have complementary skill sets that allow each other to grow, and Cohen has a real knack for leveraging the two. Godwin is experiencing a career resurgence of sorts, with 109 catches for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. Evans, on the other hand, is a little off his 1,000-yard pace for the year, but he is averaging a touchdown per game and has gained over 150 yards in his last two games.
Main stats: 0.8
Beyond these two things get more interesting. Rookie sensation Jalen McMillan scored a touchdown in the season opener, but was mostly silent for the next two games before missing Weeks 4 and 5 with an injury. However, before his injury, he struggled to fit into the Bucks’ offense. His 0.8 yards per route run ranks ninth out of 12 players who have run routes for the Bucs this season. He caught just 50% of his six targets and struggled to help the run game as an add-on blocker.
Trey Palmer showed more success in Week 4, scoring a touchdown with an improbable catch early in the Eagles’ game. Palmer had to leave the game early due to an injury of his own. With this year’s limited workload, Palmer has looked better than the rookie McMillan, and his efficiency metrics seem to match. Palmer leads McMillan in yards per route, catch percentage, catch percentage above expectations and target percentage.
But the most interesting option for the Bucks right now is Sterling Shepard. The former Giant was always a talented receiver. He just suffers from poor health and a wrong role. After being called up following Palmer’s injury, he showed the most exciting potential as an additional layer to the Bucs’ receiving corps, catching four passes for 55 yards and a touchdown on just 55 routes.
Short-term and long-term outlook
In the short term, the Bucks need to prioritize offensive efficiency. Now that Sterling Shepard is on the active roster, he should be part of the majority of three-receiver sets going forward. If all receivers are healthy, Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan should see some limited action. That’s not to say the Bucs should give up on either young pass catcher. Both have potential, but right now neither is ready to help the offense as much as Shepard.
This position group is likely to see significant movement over the next 17 months. Chris Godwin is a pending free agent whose next contract should be worth more than $28 million per season at his current level of play. The Bucs may choose to keep their rejuvenated receivers, but that would require significant resources.
If Godwin is not retained, either Palmer or McMillan will need to make a big step forward next season. I’d argue for spending big to keep Godwin, given his relationship with Baker Mayfield and the fact that there are few other players who will require significant investment next year. And with Mike Evans set to turn 32 next August, there is no true ‘X’ receiver to fill that role if he leaves. A receiver could be high on the Bucs’ priority list next offseason.
tight end
Bucks TE Cade Otton – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Cade Ottons The 2024 campaign went much the same way as the previous two seasons. Although he was pretty solid as a receiver, he also had some low-key play interspersed with very shaky blocking. Although his blocking has improved this year, his instability seems to show up at the worst possible times.
Among the 21 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 15th in target rating, 17th in yards per route run, 9th in yards after catch per reception and 10th in catch rate. He would work best as a fourth or fifth option on offense. He currently ranks as the Bucks’ No. 3 target. That has to change.
Payne Durham hasn’t been used much this year, playing only a quarter of the offensive snaps and running just 15 routes. This resulted in Otton playing an incredible 94% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Main stats: 4.3%
Cade Otton’s yards after catch per receiving blank is very high as only 4.3% of his targets exceeded 10 air yards during the season. Compare this with 24.5% in 2023 and 21.7% in 2022. Liam Cohen is clearly using Otton differently than former offensive coordinators Byron Leftwich and Dave Canales. And the results are slightly improved.
But Otton is not a difference maker. He can pop up here and there for a few catches, but he’s not a volume driver who can sustain the offense if Chris Godwin or Mike Evans go down, even in games.
Short-term and long-term outlook
Cade Otton is clearly the starter for the rest of the season, and none of the players behind him are viable options to replace him. Otton is neither a positive nor a negative qualifier. He’s enough.
But next season, the team needs to make a concerted effort to upgrade its third option in the passing game. In theory, the tight end position isn’t a big part of the passing game and shouldn’t require a huge investment. That being said, Otton is a low-end starter and probably profiles as a very good No. 2.
If the Bucs can find or develop a quality third receiver, he would be a perfectly fine option to finish out his rookie contract as the starting tight end. However, if Jason Licht and the front office want to, they could certainly open up a pot of creativity by considering upgrading Otto and keeping the tight end as the third-highest volume option.
