To say the Bucks’ 2024 season has been a roller coaster thus far would be a perfectly fair assessment. And they are just five games into the campaign. So far, only one game seems to have gone “as planned.” Tampa Bay’s Week 1 win over the Washington Commanders didn’t rock the football world.
Since then, the Bucks have experienced highs and lows week after week, enough to warrant an EKG on a tachycardia patient. He had a surprising win against Detroit and then had a solid performance against Denver. Tampa Bay then capped off its current 3-2 schedule with a big win against the Eagles, but fell apart late against the Falcons.
The inconsistent nature of the team’s game-to-game results and the relative shortness of the season thus far have led to a lot of confusion about what’s right and what’s wrong with regard to not only the current team composition, but also the short-term and long-term composition of the team. It can cause you to overreact about what is going on. – Future outlook for each position group. So, with 30% of the regular season remaining, we look at each position group from both a short-term and long-term perspective while the Bucks try to get healthy with a mini-bye after getting emotional. I thought I’d like to see it. thursday night football game.
Today we’ll be looking at quarterbacks and running backs. Next up are wide receivers and tight ends.
quarterback
The Bucks signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year, $100 million contract this offseason, a move that was controversial at the time. Through five weeks, he’s made general manager Jason Richt look like a genius. Mayfield is running new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen’s system as if he’s worked with him his whole life.
Mayfield is currently on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and 37 touchdowns. In a depressed passing environment, these are extremely impressive numbers, and his $33.3 million APY contract would seem like a bargain. When comparing a quarterback’s play on several different measures to try to create a composite rating of his play compared to other players, Mayfield ranks third in PFF’s overall grade in yards per attempt. Ranked 12th in EPA and 10th in EPA/Dropback.
Mayfield’s biggest struggles this year have been sporadic games due to pressure. During the Bucks’ loss to Denver, Mayfield often applied or exacerbated pressure by dropping his eyes or bailing from clean pockets. However, he seemed to fix that problem the following week, playing very clean football in four of five games this year.
The Bucks’ offense has averaged 30 points this season and has met or exceeded that point total in 60% of their games thus far. While the run game hasn’t hit its stride yet, it was the Baker-led passing attack that did much of the heavy lifting.
Main stats: 2.6%
This represents Baker Mayfield’s turnover-worthy play rate. The focus of pro football. Mayfield is putting the ball in danger at the lowest rate of his career. It also currently ranks tied for 11th in the NFL. The biggest knock on Mayfield throughout his career was his tendency to turn the ball over, which caused a ceiling in his game. If he can continue to be smart with the ball without completely losing his offensive edge, he could finally emerge as a consensus top-10 quarterback this season.
Short-term and long-term outlook
No changes are necessary here. There is no quarterback controversy. Baker Mayfield’s play was revelatory and was even mentioned in early MVP conversations. At his current level of play, the Bucks would be willing to pay him. $30 million salary Preparations will be made for early extension renegotiation next year and in 2026.
Former second-round pick and backup Kyle Trask is in the middle of his contract year, but could be re-signed on a cheap one-year deal. If that happens, he and Michael Pratt will be competing for the No. 2 spot next offseason.
running back
Even if there is no debate at signal caller, there is nothing but debate at the running back position. The combination of Bucky Irving’s key fumble and relatively poor play in Week 5 and Rashard White’s explosive 56-yard run probably quelled the debate for at least a week, but I’m sure people will agree to the surface. The voice will regain its strength as soon as you see it. -Calculate the difference in level yards per carry between the two backs and assume Irving is the much better back.
I tried to make the more nuanced case that the problem is in the plan, not the backside, and that applies just as well heading into week six. 2nd week and Week 4.
1/14 Thread about Bucky vs. Ratchard with proper context applied. First of all, I would like to thank several people who provided information that helped put YPC numbers in context. with myself @LedyardNFLDraft We discussed this on his Audibles and Analytics Podcast.
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) September 26, 2024
The backs of both are solid, if unremarkable. Both full-backs play a role in an effective attack. White has speed in space and ranks among the top five in the NFL in receiving and pass protection. His quick feet and long strides are a disadvantage in tight spaces, and he struggles to press the front side on wide zone runs. Irving has the short-area quickness to thrive in chaos, and with his inner compass and pinball-like running style, he consistently gains more yards after contact than the average back. can.
Among running backs with at least 20 carries this season, Irving ranks seventh in yards after contact per carry (3.68) and 10th in missed tackle percentage (27.27%). White is above average in both metrics, ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt (3.29) and 19th in missed tackle percentage (21.57%).
Main status: 2.0
This year, the Bucs are averaging 2.0 yards per carry on outside zone, sweeps and stretch plays. Bucky Irving is averaging 2.5 yards per carry and Rathard White is averaging 1.8 yards per carry. However, these runs account for 36% of the total first and second down runs in neutral game situations. The good news? That rate is going down by the week. Both fullbacks have the potential to be successful if the scheme suits them and the offensive line’s strengths.
On gap runs and inside zone runs in the same situations, the Bucs’ top two backs averaged 5.6 yards per carry, Irving averaged 5.8 yards and White averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
Short-term and long-term outlook
In the short term, usage should remain fairly static. Rashard White should still outperform Bucky Irving. Because he’s a great back on passing downs and the backs pass the ball 2/3 of the time. In terms of carries, the two backs should continue to split the load relatively evenly, as Irving will likely get 55% of the actual carries and White will still see a huge amount of targets in the passing attack. .
The big area of change is play calling, and Liam Cohen himself seems to understand that. As the weeks go by, the gaps increase and the out-of-zone decreases, which is to the team’s benefit.
When used in a gap scheme, these two make a perfect running duo in the long run. White will enter a contract year in 2025, but I don’t see any need for the Bucks to prioritize the position in the offseason.