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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions. @PewterReport Twitter accounts are added to the Bucs Mailbag weekly. Submit your questions to the Bucs Mailbag weekly via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag. Here are the Bucks questions we chose to answer in this week’s issue.
Question: Did Todd Bowles save his job with Sunday’s win?
answer: With Sunday’s win at Green Bay? No, not necessarily. It certainly helps his cause, and the Bucs’ playoff chances, that the team is back to .500 with a 7-7 record. But I can’t help but remember that Lovie Smith was in a nearly identical situation in 2015, in his second season as Tampa Bay’s head coach.
Bucks HC Todd Bowles – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Smith and the Buck family suffered the “Capitol Collapse,” also known as Kirk Cousins’ “You Like It?!” In this game, the Redskins came back from a 24-7 deficit at halftime to defeat Washington’s Tampa Bay, 31-30. I called for Smith’s firing as the Bucks fell to 2-4 on the year, with an overall record of 4-18 at the time.
Still, Smith’s Bucks won four of their next six games, going 6-6 and reaching a batting average of .500 for the year. What was a pleasant comeback was short-lived, as Smith lost four straight games, finished the season with 6 wins and 10 losses, and lost his job.
Jon Gruden also had a good start in 2008 with a 9-3 record, but he lost four straight in the final stages, falling to 9-7 and missing the playoffs. That ultimately cost Gruden his job.
So Bowles still has work to do. At worst, the Bucks finish 7-10, which almost certainly means he’s fired. At best, Tampa Bay would win and finish 10-7, which would be a two-win improvement over the previous year. Let’s see how the rest of this season plays out.
Question: Do you think this is the end for Devin White in pewter and red, or do you think he still has a role to play this season?
Bucks ILB Devin White – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
answer: Devin White will not play in a Buccaneers uniform again after choosing to decline to play in Green Bay on Sunday when told he would not be the starter and Tampa Bay would start KJ Britt instead. I’d be surprised if I did. This is a five-year starter and team captain effectively resigning from the team. I don’t know how he bounces back from that and wins in the locker room, especially late in the season when the team is focused on making the playoffs.
The Bucs currently have four healthy inside linebackers in Britt, Lavonte David, JJ Russell and rookie Sarvosia Dennis. In other words, they don’t need white. And if he does end up being a backup, will White’s ego allow him to be relegated to special teams or cover kicking? no way. White is thinking too highly of himself at this stage of the game.
Unless something drastic happens in the next few weeks, I think he’s likely to be inactive for the remainder of the season. I already reported in SR’s Fab 5 column on Dec. 1 that the Bucks had no intention of re-signing him. So Tampa Bay needs to get through this and use Britt and David as starting linebackers.
Question: If Devin White leaves, will the Bucks get a third-round comp pick?
Bucks ILB Devin White – Photo by Cliff Welch P/R
answer: no. Compensatory draft picks are awarded to teams that have more to lose than to gain in free agency. The exact formula by which the league awards comps is a bit of a mystery, but it has to do with the average annual contract of players signed versus players lost.
Devin White lost a lot of market value in his contract year with a total bombshell about his poor play and attitude in 2023. His annual salary could have exceeded $10 million, but it probably ended up being much less than that. Let’s say White signs a one-year demonstration contract next year worth $5 million. If Tampa Bay signs a new defensive or offensive player for more than $5 million, that would be offset and the Bucs would get nothing in 2025 for losing White.
For example, the Bucks currently have a 2024 seventh-round pick due to offsetting the losses of Rakeem Nunez-Roches, who makes $4 million a year, and Sean Murphy-Bunting, who makes $3.5 million a year, according to OverTheCap.com. It is said that they are planning to acquire. Baker Mayfield was signed for $4 million, and Greg Gaines and Greg Gaines were signed for $3.5 million.
Mike Edwards’ $3 million annual loss was only offset by Ryan Neal’s $2.13 million. So there’s a nearly $1 million difference between the two safeties, and the Bucks will end up getting a seventh-round pick.
Question: Can Tampa Bay extend this three-game winning streak to six games and a district title?
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
answer: can you do that? Yes, I can. The Jaguars are reeling from a three-game losing streak. Factor in the fact that quarterback Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol and Jacksonville is a weak team right now.
Riding a wave of confidence after three straight wins, the Bucks should be able to play well at home on Christmas Eve. In this case, I think playing the game at home instead of traveling closer to the holidays would help Tampa Bay.
If the Bucs are successful in defeating the Jaguars, they will be 8-7 and will host the New Orleans Saints next week for the division title. Todd Bowles has a Saints jersey number for some reason, as he is 3-0 against New Orleans as Tampa Bay’s head coach.
Winning those two games could be enough to give the Bucs the district title. Tampa Bay won its second straight NFC South title a year ago by defeating the Panthers in Week 17 at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs go to Carolina looking to finish the regular season with a third straight district title already.
We can win all three games. It will be interesting to see how the Bowles Bucs finish the 2023 regular season.
Question: What has changed on offense, especially in the run game, to make the Bucs more effective?
Bucks RB Rathard White – Photo courtesy of USA Today
answer: Josh Quaipo of the Pewter Report did a great job of explaining what has improved in Tampa Bay’s ground game, so I’ll do this. See his article And keep my answer sweet. While Dave Canales is learning as a rookie play-caller, the young offensive line has grown together and shown improvement in the running game.
The Bucs are doing less zone blocking and more counters and gap schemes than before, which suits the talent of the offensive line very well. Rashard White also deserves credit for running with more purpose and determination and less hesitation. White has picked up his game with the timing of the offense and is coming together very well.
Question: If I select No. 19 or later, what are the chances for a pass rush or safety? The front four has to be able to pass rush.
Penn State Edge Chop Robinson – Photo Credit: USA Today
answer: I’m not sure there are any safeties worth selecting in the first round this year. Miami’s Kamren Kintjens is considered the best safety, followed by Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin, but it’s unclear whether either is a first-round prospect. If their draft positions are preserved due to the team making the playoffs, both should still be on the board when the Bucks make their selection towards the end of the round.
We will be doing more draft research in January after the season ends and Pewter Report begins preparations for the Senior Bowl.However, according to MockDraftDatabase.com, Penn State edge rusher Chopp Robinson is rated the No. 19 prospect, and Washington edge rusher Bralen Trice is ranked No. 23. So there are some potential late-round options. I agree that the Bucs need to find an edge rusher who can consistently win one-on-one games and create more pressure.
Remember, the Bucs just drafted defensive tackle Kaliyah Kancey with the 19th overall pick last season. So picking late in the draft is by no means a harbinger of death or a lost cause. The goal is to win enough games and make it to the playoffs. And now the Bucks are in position to make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.
Question: What does Baker Mayfield have to do the rest of the season for the Bucs to not take a QB in the first round and re-sign Mayfield?
Bucks QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of USA Today
answer: Both head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Richt like Baker Mayfield, who has played some great football this year in Tampa Bay. If Richt and Bowles return in 2024, and Mayfield qualifies for the postseason, there’s a good chance he’ll be back next year. Mayfield is a perfect fit for Dave Canales’ offense.
Even if Mayfield leaves, it’s unclear whether the Bucs will spend their first-round pick on a quarterback. He will likely replace a second-round pick. Let’s take a look at how the 2024 QB class shakes out in the rankings.
And even if Mayfield were to stay, it shouldn’t prevent the team from drafting a quarterback. Kyle Trask is entering his contract year, but he has little track record yet. Starters are dropping like flies across the league, and teams can’t have enough good QBs. I support the idea of signing Mayfield to a short-term deal with a big raise, but I also support the idea of drafting a future starter in the second round, or perhaps a late first round.
