Last week I We outlined the Bucks’ cap situation in 2025. Given the talented roster with some specific holes, it stands to reason that the team could look for outside help next year. And while Tampa Bay isn’t out of the playoff race this year, in fact, it’s a fun exercise after the bye week to consider some of the free agent targets the team might pursue at cornerback next year. I thought it would be.
The cost projections for potential contracts are based on the current projections myself and Kyle Dedimini-Cantanio have for these players through Week 10 of this season.
2025 Bucs Cornerback Options
Bucks CB Jamel Dean – Photo by Cliff Welch P/R
As well as edge rushers, the Bucs are not lacking in talent at cornerback. Zion McCollum played the most snaps at outside corner as a fill-in last year, and showed his worth as a starter in 2024. Hit next generation statistics, McCollum has given up -6.0 expected extra points when targeted and 0.82 yards per coverage rep this year. Both are very good numbers and have shown signs of dominance in several games this year.
McCollum’s opposite, Jamel Dean, has become something of a pariah among Bucks fans due to his inconsistent play and history of absences due to injury. Since the beginning of 2023, he has missed 30% of the team’s regular season games. There is no guaranteed money left on his contract after this season, so the Bucks could save $8.432 million in salary cap space by letting him go next year. It’s perfectly reasonable to speculate that the team could move on from him.
Cornerback Bryce Hall was signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, but broke his foot in Week 1 and missed the entire season. It’s doubtful he’ll return to Tampa Bay. If the Bucs choose to rejig the cornerback position after Dean’s potential release and watch Josh Hayes and Tyreke Funderburk struggle mightily in Dean’s absence, here’s the deal. There are several potential free agents they could target.
top of the market
49ers CB Charvarius Ward – Photo courtesy of USA Today
There are four cornerbacks expected to sign free agent contracts next year with APYs of $15 million or more. For the purpose of this article, we will assume that a reunion with former Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis III is unlikely. This leaves Paulson Adebo, Charvarius Ward, and DJ Reed in the corners, three players who will be a bigger investment.
Ward and Reid are each on their third contracts, while Adeboh should lead the true free agent market due to his age and this being his second contract. After a very strong 2023 season, Adebo is having a more subdued campaign this year.
Highly staffed systems are more susceptible to carrying higher yardage/route runs. On the other hand, he has a coverage EPA of -25.6 (negative is better for defenders) and holds opposing quarterbacks to a quarterback rating of 66.8 when targeted. Add in his seven interceptions so far in 2023, and you have the makings of a big deal.
The cornerback market, which has experienced relative stagnation since the signing of Jaire Alexander in 2022, is set to undergo a seismic adjustment. We’ve already seen adjustments starting with Jalen Ramsey and Pat Surtain II’s contract extensions this year pushing the market’s high end to $24 million. Appy. Adebo has the second-best deal after those two deals, but he’s also slightly out-earned Alexander at $21.5 million per year over four years, for a total of $86 million.
This type of deal would cost the Bucks about $10 million in salary cap charges in 2025 if they hit the cap.
Both Reed and Ward were highly productive players operating in a Robert Saleh style system. Ward, at 6-foot-1, has the length the Bucks have coveted since 2019, while Reed has found success despite being smaller at 5-foot-9. Both were free agents in 2022. Although Reed was statistically better, Ward earned $2.5 million more in APY that year.
Fast forward to this year, and I expect their contracts to be reversed, with Ward making $16 million APY over three years and Reed around $17 million. Over the past three seasons, Ward has excelled in ball production, with six interceptions and 28 pass breakups to Reed’s two and 22. If Tampa Bay commits to one of these types of contracts, the 2025 cap hit would likely be between $9.5 million and $10.5 million.
in the middle of the market
Vikings CB Byron Murphy – Photo courtesy of USA Today
At this point, three corners make up the center of the market. Rasul Douglas, Byron Murphy, Asante Samuel Jr.
Douglas experienced a bit of a career resurgence after Green Bay traded him to Buffalo at last year’s trade deadline. He’s a smart, quick-thinking corner player who has traditionally done well in zone but not so well in man coverage. This will likely be his last big shot since Douglas turns 30 next year, has a cap hit of about $8 million in 2025, and could earn $13.5 million annually on a shorter contract.
Samuel had a promising rookie season, but has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency ever since. If the team looks back on this year, when he hasn’t played since Week 4, he could be paid around $13.5 million a year over three years. His play last year was solid according to Pro Football Focus’ rating system, with 14 forced incompletions, but he was targeted on only 15% of coverage snaps. If he outweighs his proposed contract, his cap hit in 2025 would be around $9 million.
Murphy is a very interesting case. It’s not easy to properly evaluate Murphy when he’s playing behind a line that brings home wins 55% of the time. He’s targeted more than 20% of the time, but he had a -4.1 coverage EPA and four interceptions this year. This gives him a two-year deal worth around $20 million and should hit a $5 million cap hit in 2025.
I don’t think the Bucks will be in the market for Paulson Adebo, but it’s possible the team could target one of the other top corners on the market with a proven track record in Reed or Ward. In the middle of the market area, none of the options are very likely plays for Tampa Bay.
