bucks 2022 Draft Class It has proven to be a fruitful collection for general manager Jason Licht. Yes, Logan Hall, who was first selected by the team that year and was selected 33rd overall, never became the consistent, penetrating pass rusher the team had hoped for. But he wasn’t completely unplayable either. Hall is a hard-working player who provides some value as a depth piece for a playoff team. He doesn’t deserve a draft spot, but will likely remain in the league past his first contract.
Following Hall, three players selected in the later rounds have stepped up in the past year, playing this year to claim early extensions and earn the big salaries every player wants while also helping the Bucs. would provide early extension savings. He should consider an extension rather than allowing himself to be saddled with an even higher price tag in 2026 due to the ever-increasing salary cap.
RT Luke Goedeke
Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
After returning to his natural position after his stellar sophomore campaign, we at Pewter Report suggested early on that Luke Goedeke could be an early extension candidate. It’s hard to find one good tackle for an NFL team. It’s almost impossible to find two. So for general manager Jason Licht to do this in the span of three drafts is a coup by some force. The tackle market experienced a big bump this offseason with Penei Sewell, and ultimately Wirfs himself reset the market by 12.5%.
Acquiring Goedeke a year early could save the Bucks between $2 million and $4 million annually. Goedeke played in four games this year after missing Weeks 2 through 5 with a concussion. Since his return, he seems to be shaking off the rust and getting back to the same form he was when he arrived in 2022. He allowed just six pressures in 190 pass-blocking snaps, giving him a reasonable pressure rate allowed of 3.2%.
Goedeke has a Pro Football Focus pass blocking efficiency of 98.0. This surpassed the 96.6 points he scored last year. And Goedeke contributed to the Bucs’ run game, which suddenly became a top-10 unit in the NFL.
Goedeke’s play should earn him a $20 million annual salary. Spencer Brown of the Buffalo Bills just signed an early extension, and here’s how Goedeke’s 2024 season lines up with Brown’s 2023 season.
Their three-year weighted average grades showed a similar trend, with Goedeke earning a pass-blocking grade 10 points higher, while Brown earning a run-blocking grade seven points higher. Goedeke’s pass blocking efficiency and pressure rate allowed were both higher than his Buffalo Bills opponents. Brown’s most recent contract extension was a four-year, $72 million contract with $18 million per year and just under $20 million in fully guaranteed money. Brown is also a former third-round pick.
Goedeke has a better draft pedigree as a former second-round pick, has better pass-blocking ability, and will earn about $20 million more than the current $255.4 million cap hit under Brown’s contract. He will likely seek an extension under the cap. All three of these things bode well for “Luke the Lifter” to clear Brown’s trade for a significant amount. Each of these factors could increase his APY by about $500,000, bringing Goedeke’s annual salary to $19.5 million.
Will the Bucks end up acquiring Goedeke a year before he becomes a free agent? We’ll see, but what could prevent the team from signing a new contract that includes guaranteed money is that Goedeke has missed four games this year with a concussion. Former Pro Bowl guard Ali Marpet retired early due to concussion concerns. The Bucks hope Goedeke’s concussion is an isolated incident rather than a recurring trend that could threaten his career. Tampa Bay could play it safe and see if he finishes his contract year injury-free first, or roll the dice and acquire Godeke early. Let’s take a look.
TE Cade Otton
Bucks TE Cade Otton – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Cade Otton entered this season showing that he is a low-end starting option. His blocking was inconsistent, and his pass-catching productivity was near the bottom of most lists, including yards per route run, catch percentage, and overall stats.
But Otton is in the midst of a breakout season. Otton is now poised to be among the top 10 highest-paid tight ends in the game, aided by his increased role on offense and his truly improved play as both a pass catcher and blocker. At his current pace, Otton will finish 2024 with a three-year total of 213 targets, 146 catches, 1,406 receiving yards, 690 yards after the catch, and 70 first downs.
Compare that to Bears tight end Cole Kmet, who signed a four-year, $50 million contract in 2023. In the three years leading up to that deal, Kmet totaled 200 targets, 138 receptions for 1,399 yards, 680 yards after the catch and 68 yards first. down.
These totals are eerily similar. Assuming the 2025 salary cap is $275 million, if you draw a line from Kmet’s $12.5 million APY, if Otton is successful in claiming Kmet as compensation, Otton will It will command 13.5 million APY. But Kmet’s 2023 contract had an interesting underlying factor that caused the Bears’ tight end to get more money than most expected. That year, the Bears were in danger of missing the NFL’s three-year cash spending minimum. So he signed a contract that inflated his overall value.
But while Kmet is a former second-round pick, Otton is a third-day pick. Currently, the highest average annual salary for a former third-day pick tight end not named George Kittle is Dalton Schultz’s $12 million APY. Otto could enter with similar numbers. But I do expect to see a big uptick in the tight end market, which has been relatively stagnant in recent years. And if that happens, Otton will likely be asking for an APY of $14 million.
CB Zion McCollum
Bucks CB Zion McCollum – Photo courtesy of USA Today
No Bucs player has increased his value this year more than cornerback Zion McCollum. While he produced little defensively, McCollum was a rare bright spot. According to Pro Football Focus, McCollum has been targeted 36 times in coverage this season and has allowed just 17 catches for 286 yards on 329 coverage snaps. This equates to a catch rate of 47.2% allowed and 0.87 yards per coverage rep. his 7 forced imperfections His 18.4 snaps per reception is tied for sixth in the NFL and seventh.
McCollum is playing like a legitimate shutdown Tier 1 corner this year. After years of stagnation, they are starting to receive big rewards. $24 million Year by year. However, McCollum has several factors that inhibit his ability to earn more than $20 million a year as a corner corner for Jalen Ramsey, AJ Terrell, Jaire Alexander and Pat Surtain II.
First, the Bucks just paid Antoine Winfield Jr. $21.025 million per year, making him the highest-paid defensive back in league history. This nickname didn’t last long, as Sartin and Ramsey quickly topped the APY, but it was still an important investment made very recently.
Tampa Bay made this investment after Winfield Jr. performed at a very high level for four consecutive years. It’s hard to see a world in which they would go back to the negotiating table a year after signing Winfield and offering McCollum a bigger, one-year deal as an elite player. On top of that, McCollum is a former fifth-round pick. Whether you agree with that or not, draft pedigree will be factored into second round contract negotiations. Of the 10 highest-paid cornerbacks in the NFL, only Jarius Snead is a Day 3 pick.
With those three factors working against McCollum, the closest contractual compensation for him would ironically be Jamel Dean’s 2023 contract. With an APY of 5.78% of the salary cap at the time of his contract, McCollum’s 2025 adjustment will bring his APY to just about $16 million. If McCollum continues to play as well as he has so far this year for the rest of the season, this likely represents the lower end of his defensive range. Taking the average of the three closest contracts, Dean, Alexander’s 2022 contract, and Desmond Trufant’s 2020 contract, McCollum is worth $19.125 million annually.
This number works in several ways. First, it would keep McCollum’s APY a reasonable distance from Winfield Jr.’s record-setting 2024 contract. Second, it would mean he narrowly clears Sneed. Snead’s most recent contract with the Titans averaged $19.1 million per year. That would give McCollum the distinction of being the highest-paid former third-day cornerback in league history.
So which Bucs players are likely to get extensions first?
Bucks GM Jason Licht and Director of Football Administration Mike Greenberg – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
It’s unlikely the Bucks will extend all three of these players next year. The team doesn’t have many pending free agents who could fetch big bucks. Wide receiver Chris Godwin is the only player not under contract through 2025 and will likely need a big contract. He will definitely be a priority for the Bucks.
However, after re-securing his services, we expect the team to consider retaining at least one, and perhaps two, of these three players. In my opinion, Luke Goedeke is the most likely candidate. That’s because general manager Jason Licht has indicated that trench play is the area of the roster he’s most interested in investing in — assuming Goedeke doesn’t get concussed again this year and things are like he was earlier. -Seasonal concussion is an isolated incident.
Zion McCollum seems the least likely to get an early contract, as play at the cornerback position has been fickle from year to year. However, there will be major changes in the market at cornerback this coming offseason. It started just three months ago with Terrell, Surtain II, and Ramsey, and it’s sure to continue next year with Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr.
These contracts will fundamentally change the market and provide momentum for McCollum’s next contract. The Bucks roll the dice by asking McCollum to prove he can sustain this level of play for more than one season.
Cade Otton ranks in the middle of his draft peers in terms of chances of getting an early extension. Tight end is one of the cheaper positions, and with a market reset likely as early as 2025, I could see the Bucks trying to work out an early deal for him along with Goedeke. . He has the longest track record of the three for keeping teams satisfied with long-term deals and is a workhorse, playing over 90% of the team’s snaps while appearing in every game since the start of the season.
Time will tell which of these players gets an early contract, but all three make strong cases to be considered.
