A deadly wave of bird flu has invaded commercial farms across the United States, devastating California poultry farmers. Once again, in what seems like a repeat of this time last year, the spread of infection threatens to: The price of eggs will be increased before Easter.
Approximately 1.96 million birds are kept domestically for meat and egg consumption. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, culling was carried out in California alone in January to prevent the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Detections were found at seven commercial chicken, egg, or turkey farms.
The monthly increase represents more than half of the birds affected by the virus in California since October 2023, according to the data.Most of the commercial cases are settled in her four counties, including Sonoma County, where local officials emergency After two detections in early December.
Brian Earnest, a protein analyst at Corbank, said the amount of poultry and eggs leaving the market as cases continue to rise and bird populations decline, especially in California, where cage-free laws prohibit sourcing. He said it would be difficult to replenish the supply. From conventional eggs.
“Overall, we haven’t seen a big impact on the market yet,” Ernest said. Retail and wholesale prices have fallen seasonally as producers rebuild herds and production improves following the worst poultry disease outbreak in history.However, after that Month in which no avian influenza was detectedwith the re-emergence of HPAI in fall 2023, the outlook for the US market has become uncertain again.
Ernest said egg production typically picks up at the end of the year, when consumers do a lot of baking and cooking in preparation for the holidays. Production will then scale back, giving the industry a sigh of relief and a chance to regroup. But Ernest said if demand picks up again in March, “prices could rise, especially if avian influenza continues to negatively impact overall supply.”
“We expect supplies to become tighter as Easter approaches,” he said. “There will be more empty shelves in the cage-free market than in other markets.”
about 58.5 million birds They were culled between February 2022 and 2023 as a result of the avian influenza epidemic. Nearly 76% of the total came from sales of raw eggs, which saw prices soar as shoppers faced inflationary pressures. After this period, as avian influenza outbreaks decreased, producers worked to rebuild their flocks and get production back on track. According to the data, practically no commercial detections occurred between April and October last year.
Fast forward to today, and things have changed a lot. States in the Upper Midwest were hit hard by HPAI late last year. About 6.5 million birds, mostly turkeys, were culled in Minnesota and South Dakota between October and December, according to USDA data. Locally, the number of infections has subsided, but in Indiana this week,reported the first case Over a year on a commercial turkey farm.
about 81.74 million birds from Commercial and backyard herds in the United States have been affected since the outbreak began in February 2022, according to USDA data.
“I never expected this to happen six months ago,” Ernest said. “Most experts were optimistic that it wouldn’t happen again, but it did.”
abnormal weather may be the cause
Ernest said part of this change in activity could be due to the extreme winter temperatures that have hit the country recently. Wild migratory waterfowl often spread diseases to commercial farms and backyard flocks through their droppings and nasal secretions.
Maurice Piteski, an associate professor at the University of California, Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, said millions of waterfowl migrate to California in the winter in search of warmer weather. A spike in backyard flocks near commercial establishments also “could spell disaster” once waterfowl are introduced, he said.
“Wild animals are good at interfacing in all kinds of ways,” Piteski says.
This disease is not limited to California or any other U.S. state. Variations of highly pathogenic avian influenza have spread around the world, affecting wildlife on nearly every continent, forcing political leaders to make difficult decisions to secure the world’s food supply.
France has started vaccinating livestock to reduce the disease. Germany is also considering it, but a number of trade barriers prevent it from exporting vaccinated poultry. A global effort to restore them. Pitesky said allowing vaccinations could also have unintended consequences, such as additional costs for shots passed on to consumers.
“If we continue to deal with this problem every year from an economic and animal welfare standpoint, we may need to transition away from poultry,” Pitesky said. “We consume 100 pounds of chicken every year, but that wasn’t always the case.”