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In the meantime, let’s take a look at where the smart money is leaning in today’s NFL Conference Championship game.
3:00 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 44.5)
The Chiefs (13-6) are the No. 3 seed and just finished as road dogs with three points, defeating the Bills 27-24 in the divisional round. Meanwhile, the Ravens (14-4) are the No. 1 seed and cover as 10.5-point home favorites after defeating the Texans 34-10 in the divisional round.
The line opened with Baltimore listed as the 3.5-point home favorite to win the game. Earlier in the week, Baltimore briefly fell to -3. Since then, we’ve seen the line steadily move back toward the Ravens, pushing Baltimore to -4 and even -4.5 overall. Basically, a late-game move is breaking out for the Ravens to put points at home. Baltimore receives 50% of the wagers and 61% of the funds, indicating that the public, while undecided, respects the “low stakes, high dollars” policy in favor of the Ravens. The home favorites are 19-15 ATS (56%) in the conference championship round for the first time since 2004, including 25-9 straight up (74%).
But the elephant in the room is Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ star quarterback is 9-1 (90%) ATS, the best of his career. Mahomes was a complete dog in last week’s game against Buffalo, and he was a complete dog in last year’s Super Bowl against the Eagles by 1.5 points. Their playoff record is 6-4 (60%) this postseason, and 49-34 (59%) since 2017. Mahomes is 3-1 against Lamar Jackson. Head umpire Sean Smith has historically been 60% ATS for road teams. Having reached +4.5 on the hook, the Chiefs are in the best teaser spot (+4.5 to +10.5) to pass the key numbers 7 and 10.
The total is also trending in the same way. It started at 45.5, dropped to 44, then rose to 44.5. However, many stores have taken him below 44.5 to -115, suggesting that some stores are to blame and that he may return to 44.5. If you look at 24-20 type scores, hooks can be important. The general public supports Ober (77%). However, the under is only receiving his 23% of the bet, but receiving his 57% of the bankroll, with contrarian bets being split wide. Weather could be a factor, as the forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s, winds at 10 mph and a chance of rain.
Player props to consider: Travis Kelce receiving yards over 63.5 (-115). This prop opened at 62.5 and rose to 63.5, showing that there is more respect than action. Kelce exceeded those numbers in both playoff games, with seven catches for 71 yards against Miami and five catches for 75 yards against Buffalo. He is tied with Laci Rice for the most goals in the postseason (16).
6:30 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7, 51.5)
The Lions (14-5) are the No. 3 seed and are the six-point favorites at home after defeating the Buccaneers 31-23 in the divisional round. Meanwhile, the 49ers (13-5) are the No. 1 seed and just beat the Packers 24-21 in the divisional round, but fell short of the home favorites with 10 points.
The line opened with the 49ers listed as the home favorite with seven points. The public thinks this line is too high and is rushing to the counter to score points at Cinderella Lions. But even though his 69% of bets won points with Detroit, this line remains frozen at his 49ers -7, and even he has seen it rise to 49ers -7.5. I did. This shows that San Francisco has sharp “fashion dog fade-out” values, putting points in rare contrarian hot spots. San Francisco only receives 31% of the stakes, while he receives 49% of the funds, making for a sharp split in “low stakes, high dollar” stakes.
But further complicating this handicap are the different system matches in Detroit. Coach Dan Campbell’s Lions posted a 36-17 (68%) record, including 22-10 (69%) as dogs and 11-4 (73%) as dogs with six points or more. did. Like the Lions, the playoff dogs who missed the postseason last year are 4-2 (67%) ATS in this year’s postseason and 38-20 (66%) ATS since 2017. . Detroit also has value as a “scoring dog.” The Lions average around 27 PPG, so they keep up the pace and open up opportunities for backdoor coverage, especially if they receive a hook (+7.5). San Francisco is 0-6 in its last six home games.
Sharp appears to be leaning as the total has increased from 50.5 to 51.5 over the past few days. Some books are up to his 52. The over receives 57% of the stake and 59% of the money. Both of these offenses rank in the top five in scoring (DET 27 PPG, SF 29 PPG). The weather in Santa Clara is perfect, with an expected temperature of 70 degrees, cloudy skies, winds at 2 mph, and zero precipitation. The over is 22-13 (63%) in AFC Championship and NFC Championship games since 2004.
Player props to consider: George Kittle had over 58.5 receiving yards (-120). Kittle surpassed that number against the Packers with four catches for 81 yards. Detroit just allowed 65 receiving yards on the week to Bucs tight end Cade Otton.
Jahmil Gibbs has over 23.5 receiving yards (-120). Gibbs exceeded those numbers in both postseason games, catching four passes for 40 yards against the Bucs and catching four passes for 43 yards against the Rams.