Heavy snow in Tallinn, Estonia
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The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have completed their long-awaited decoupling from the Russian power grid and are preparing themselves for sabotage and cyberattacks this weekend.
The Baltic countries will be completely disconnected from the Moscow-controlled “Brell” energy network on Saturday before completing connections with the European power system on Sunday.
The move is seen as an important way to strengthen the electricity system, ensure energy independence and security, and to dismantle the remains of the Soviet era that have stitched together the Baltic States to Russia.
Gert Auväärt, head of Estonia’s Cybersecurity Centre, told CNBC he is working closely with his cybersecurity domain neighbors to prepare for potential risk scenarios when decoupling occurs.
“The transition is thoroughly planned, and experts have rated the possibility of serious problems as low. However, Russia may try to misuse this period to create uncertainty. “He said he commented in an email on Thursday.
“Thanks to strong domestic and international cooperation, Estonia is well prepared for the worst-case scenario, but this does not mean that such a threat will come to fruition,” he said. I added.
Whether Russia will allow significant disconnections of Baltics from “Brell” (referring to the agreement to synchronize the 2001 power grid, acronym for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) has not yet been An ongoing answer.
However, the possibility of retaliation from Russia has been taken seriously by Baltic Energy Ministries and transmission system operators such as Estonia’s state-run grid operator Elering.
“We’re ready and ready for asynchronous,” says Kalekirk, head of Ereling. He said in a statement Thursdaydescribes the process as “a unique initiative in recent energy history, in terms of its scale and complexity.”
“Major technical changes always involve certain risks, but we have thoroughly analyzed them and developed appropriate action plans. With planned migrations, average power consumers will be able to change You shouldn’t notice it.”
“But what we can’t predict 100% is the situation where energy is used as a weapon. So what’s dangerous is that we have been preparing for this for many years, but have been connected, and we are so disconnected from Russia. That’s not what it is. To the Russian power system,” Kirk said.
CNBC is seeking comment from the Kremlin and the Russian Energy Ministry and is waiting for a response.
Countdown to “energy independence”
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the EU in 2004 and changed the dialing of their national relations with Russia indefinitely.
Since then, the state has been trying to align its electrical network with the rest of the EU. Blocks provided More than 1.2 billion euros ($1.24 billion) grants For syncs considered a strategic prioritization.
Lithuanian Energy Minister Zigigmantas Vaiciunas (RL) holds a joint press conference for a meeting between Minister of Energy Caspars Melnis and Minister of Energy Caspars Melnis, Minister of Climate and Minister of Energy in Latvia Yoko Arendar, Minister of Climate in Estonia. I will give a lecture at. January 2025.
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The urgency over decoupling has accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the conflict likely to face similar Russian attacks in the future among other former Soviet republics, including Baltic Science. It spurred fear.
Continuing use of energy infrastructure during the Soviet era in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was also considered a major source of uncertainty, with concerns that Russia could freely disrupt power sources.
The Baltic countries are seen as “frontline” with Russia and its allies, Belarus (Latvia has borders with both, and Estonia crosses the border with Russia, while Lithuania is Belarus and Russia’s Kari (They share the exclusion and frontier of Ningrad), and their former Soviet positions are those of “hybrid” threat activity, ranging from cyberattacks to interference with power and communications cables under the Baltic Sea. It’s the goal.
Ober Alto, Estonia, cyberattacks against Estonia surged after a full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022.
“These ranged from Hattivist-led DDOs. [distributed denial-of-service] Attacks on more sophisticated and targeted operations on government agencies and businesses. Estonia is skilled at combating these threats, but overall risk levels remain high. It is often difficult to determine whether hostile cyber activity is related to a particular event or linked to some of the broader strategies,” he noted.
Final chapter
Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, planned decoupling from Russia over 30 years later is important and symbolic, as Baltics and Russian energy systems remain linked together. is.
“The moves by the three Baltic countries are the culmination of billions of euros of efforts to remove critical energy infrastructure from Soviet-era networks. This is seen as a source of anxiety. Risk consultancy Teneo, a risk consultant. Eastern Europe advisor said he commented in an email this week.
“During this highly symbolic and technologically complex transition, the country has boosted the physical and cybersecurity of its energy systems,” he said.
The disconnection from the Russian-operated network begins in Lithuania on Saturday morning and ends in Estonia. Baltic countries will run joint frequency and voltage tests over the weekend to “evaluate the procedural and technical measures of Baltic countries to maintain their ability to deal with frequency and independently,” said grid operator Elelling. .
On June 18, 2020, the power tower of Kurzem Circle (Kurzemsloux) was in Tucums near Riga, Latvia. Latvia completed a new high voltage power line to Estonia in the second half of 2020. Another bid to place Balticus’ electric grid in place of Russia with its European Union neighbors.
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The asynchronous process is completed on Sunday afternoons when the Baltic countries connect and synchronize the grids and connect and synchronize with the continental network of Europe known as the Continental Europe or UCTE Synchronous Grid.
Latvian Minister of Climate and Energy Caspers Melnis said, “In complex geopolitical conditions, society is more vulnerable and an attempt to spread misinformation about switchovers, stating that the date for the conclusion of the synchronous project will come to a point. He said that there was already. The closer you will encounter misleading information.”
“Therefore, we generally encourage people to treat information critically. We don’t fall into an emotionally charged declaration, and we don’t share unverified news,” he said in the comment. Ta. Posted on the website of Latvian grid operator AST.
Synchronization with the rest of the continent is extremely important to Balticus, “is aiming to maintain and control the grid, ensure stability and not rely on the actions of our neighbors,” he said. added.
There is a clear relief about future synchronization among energy operators in the Baltic Sea. Grid Operator AST even features a countdown to “Baltic Energy Independence.” on that website.
