CNN
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Those who expect main battle tanks donated to Ukraine by NATO allies to have an immediate impact on a war with Russia may need to adjust their expectations.
American M-1 Abrams, German Leopard, british challengerKyiv now faces the logistical and operational realities of incorporating a vastly different and complex assortment of heavy armor into an effective combat unit.
But first, Ukrainians need to take delivery timelines into account.
Even the most optimistic estimates say it would take months for tanks to hit the battlefield in large numbers and make a big difference, but in the case of the Abrams tanks, it would take 11 years before Ukraine could deploy them. It may take years or more.
Deputy Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said on Thursday that the US will provide Ukraine with an improved version of the Abrams, the M1A2.
The United States “does not have an excess of these tanks available in U.S. inventories,” she said, adding that it would “take months to transfer” them to Ukraine.
Many analysts say it would make things easier for Ukraine to stick to one type of tank, which is what makes Germany’s decision to bring the Leopard into battle so important.
Modern main battle tanks are complex weapons. It may look terrifyingly tough on the outside, but much of its effectiveness on the battlefield rests on sophisticated electronic and computer systems at its core. These systems locate targets and train the tank’s main guns to target them.
Maintaining, repairing, and supplying the necessary parts for tanks requires extensive training, from the crews of the vehicles to the logistics trails that support them hundreds, even thousands of miles from the front lines in eastern Ukraine. Is required.
“The tank that they can operate and maintain most effectively would be a good choice. I mean any tank you can get, which could mean the Leopard 2,” said Blake Herzinger, Adjunct Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Nicholas Drummond, a defense industry analyst specializing in ground warfare and a former British Army officer, agrees.
“I think the ability to train Ukrainian soldiers to support a given tank is more important than the type of tank they use,” he said.
Drummond said German tanks were designed to be maintained by conscription units like those in Ukraine, giving the Leopard an advantage over Abrams and Challengers, which are deployed by specialized units of volunteers in the U.S. and British armed forces. am. Conscripts have less time to learn while in uniform, so a simple design like the Leopard helps reduce the chances of maintenance mistakes.
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A little bit of poor maintenance can lead to disaster on the battlefield.
CNN military analyst Mark Hartling, who once commanded the U.S. Army’s 1st Armored Division, knows Abrams and his capabilities and vulnerabilities well.
Making tanks combat-ready means not only training their crews, but everyone in the supply chain that supports them.
Those who say, “Give me back that damned tank!” You’ve never seen the choreography to make this work on the battlefield,” said Hartling. It turns into a pillbox that doesn’t even exist,” he said.
Because Abrams is made in the U.S., it has “a very long logistical tail all the way back to the U.S.,” says Drew Thompson, a visiting senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. Major combat worn or damaged components should be replaced with US parts. This should be sent to a repair depot in Ukraine or possibly Poland, where Abrams is acquiring its own fleet.
Thompson said the Pentagon is adept at solving difficult logistical problems, but “the risks are high for both the United States and Ukraine.”
Think of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda triumph when pictures of neutralized American tanks on the battlefields of Ukraine come up.
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“Being able to support Leopard from our logistics hub in Europe is definitely desirable,” Thompson said.
And that speaks to the number of Leopards available. More than 4,000 are in service, according to Drummond, an adviser to German tank manufacturers. “Spare parts are readily available from multiple sources,” he said.
When Canada announced Thursday that it would be sending four German-made tanks to Ukraine, the versatility of the leopard’s supply was emphasized, but perhaps importantly, it will also provide training and technical support.
Other NATO countries with leopards in their arsenals include Poland, Greece, Spain, Turkey, Hungary, Denmark, Portugal, Norway, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. NATO applicants Sweden and Finland also have significant numbers of leopards.
Drummond also provides a historical perspective on why the number of WWII battles in which U.S.-made Sherman tanks faced off against German Tiger tanks is so significant.
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“Tiger was quantitatively superior to Sherman in many ways. But Sherman was good enough,” he said.
“What really stood out about the Sherman was that it was designed to be easy to produce. Quantity outweighed quality with 49,234 Shermans built versus 1,347 Tigers. Today, bearing power trumps firepower, protection and mobility,” said Drummond.
Operating new types of often-mismatched equipment is what Ukrainians have proven to be adept at in the war, using old Soviet-era tank stocks and those captured from Russia as effective so far. assembled into an army.
“Twelve in one model, 30 in another, 100 in a third … That’s Wednesday morning in the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” said Trent Terenko, a former quality control auditor at the U.S. Defense Contract Management Agency. said.
“Ukraine has put smart people into maintenance issues, along with both true mechanized logistics and modern warehouse information technology so that parts can be tracked using modern 2D and 3D barcodes on spare packages. I’m doing it,” he said.
However, Germany’s pledge of 14 Leopard tanks is only a fraction of the 300 that Ukraine needs. Germany’s main ruling party said in a tweet on Wednesday that more would come from other partners in Kyiv to bring two battalions of Leopards (about 80 tanks in total) into Ukraine’s hands. rice field.
Poland, a NATO ally who pressured Germany to allow Ukraine to provide German-made equipment, was the likely donor of the Leopard.
Officials say Ukrainian crews can immediately begin training for the tanks they will eventually receive. But we’ll probably be months away from seeing them in combat.
Portugal’s Foreign Minister João Gómez Claviño told broadcaster SIC on Wednesday: “Ukrainian military personnel need to be trained. The Leopard is a highly technically advanced piece of equipment, so the training process alone will take several weeks. It will take,” he said.
“Then it will take a couple of months because there are logistical hurdles that we have to deal with with our allies.”
Russia is unlikely to stand still while Ukraine waits for modern tanks.
The Institute for War Studies (ISW) reported Thursday that Moscow may be preparing for an offensive in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine.
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But knowing that new tanks are coming will give Ukrainian commanders more freedom to deploy their current inventory, the ISW said.
CNN military analyst Hertling also said the Leopard tank could hit the battlefield in about three months. Abrams could take eight or more, he wrote on Twitter.
“But it’s lightning fast to deploy (and) prepare a force that isn’t trained in these vehicles,” says Hertling.
It may take some time before Leopard and Abrams are on the battlefield, but experts say the Ukrainian military will need them for years.
“We are seeing the Ukrainian military fighting an existential war, modernizing and westernizing at the same time,” said Helsinger of the American Enterprise Institute.
“So decisions are being made about what tanks they need in the future, and this involves a lot of long-term choices regarding security partners,” he said.
Ukraine may not join NATO anytime soon, but it will arm itself like a NATO member.
Analysts have noted an impressive arsenal of NATO-ready equipment already on the battlefield or in the pipeline for Ukraine. This includes US, UK, and German infantry fighting vehicles, HIMARS rocket systems and other artillery, and Patriot air defense batteries among those systems.
Frank Ledwidge, a military expert at the University of Portsmouth, said: “This will ensure not only the quantity but also the quality of equipment available to them, allowing Ukraine to more efficiently integrate into NATO and other Western logistics and maintenance systems. becomes possible. wrote in conversation this month.
“Not only will Ukraine have the ability to defeat the increasingly defeated Russian army this year and next, but its forces will also serve as a deterrent to further attacks by a rearmamented and rebel Russia in the future. I guess.
“It will ensure the security of Ukraine, and therefore of Europe, over the next decade.”
This story has been updated with new information.
