Donald Trump has been trying hard over the past few months to prove that he is, as he put it in a debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, “the leader in IVF, or fertility.” And while there have been plenty of jokes surrounding his claim that he was the leader in fertility, Trump has really been trying. In August, he pledged to make IVF free to all Americans, requiring insurance companies or the federal government to cover the costs of IVF.
Trump’s debate comments put him at odds with most of his party on IVF. Only two Republicans, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, voted in favor of the IVF bill of rights. The bill, which was introduced in the Senate for a second reading this week, includes a provision similar to Trump’s pledge that employer-sponsored insurance and certain public plans must cover IVF. The former president’s strong interest in IVF also marks a surprising turnaround for his campaign, which has been largely silent on reproductive health, including on the issue of abortion rights. And his focus offers a glimpse into his political calculations as he seeks to return to the presidency. If the party does not budge on the abortion issue, IVF could show that his populist instincts are still at work, especially with swing voters, especially women.
Infertility is a problem that affects many American families, and the number is on the rise. And the treatment options are Highly consistent support Across party lines and demographic groups, one in 40 babies born in the U.S. in 2022 will be conceived through IVF, up from one in 65 a decade ago. As awareness and use of fertility treatments increases, demand is beginning to far exceed supply. Roughly one in eight Americans has tried IVF. Some infertilityLGBTQ couples and single people also often turn to IVF to conceive. Fewer poor and rural areas In fact, 80% of fertility clinics are located in the United States, and 80% of them are in New York City. Even in areas where treatment is available, it can be cost-prohibitive. IVF is estimated to cost anywhere from $15,000 to more than $30,000 per cycle, and the average patient needs 2.5 cycles to become pregnant.
The Trump campaign has released few details about its IVF plans. Vice Presidential running mate J.D. Vance said: He told NPR “The details will be worked out through the legislative process,” he said. But Republicans in Congress don’t seem eager to make this happen: Several key Republicans have voiced opposition to (or at least confusion over) Trump’s proposal, and even some of Trump’s most loyalists have stopped short of supporting government-mandated insurance coverage for the procedure.
However half-hearted Trump’s plan to make IVF free is, his support for reproductive rights contrasts with his more distanced approach to abortion. Dobbs The ruling paved the way for 22 states to tighten abortion restrictions, with more still to come, but Trump has faced fierce backlash from women’s rights and medical groups. In response, Trump has wavered on whether he supports a national abortion ban. In March, he said he supports federal abortion restrictions, but in a recent presidential debate, he said abortion access should be left to the states. At the same time, he dodged a question about whether he would veto a ban if it reached his desk. But voters have not forgotten that “his fingerprints are all over Congress.” Roe v. Wade “This decision can be overturned,” Susan Crokin, an adjunct professor of reproductive technology law at Georgetown Law School, told me. Abortion will probably remain a losing issue for his campaign, she said. Dobbs, Nearly two-thirds of Americans In a Pew Research Center poll, 50% of respondents said abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
On IVF, unlike abortion, Trump has taken a clear stance that runs counter to core conservative principles. Leaving abortion up to the states is at least in keeping with the traditional Republican position of limiting the federal government’s involvement in health care, a position that Senator Mitt Romney has also emphasized. The Importance of States’ Rights Trump opposed abortion during his 2012 presidential campaign. His pitch for free IVF runs counter to those principles as well as conservative efforts to restrict IVF on moral grounds. To many abortion opponents and abortion rights advocates, Trump’s proposal is most similar to Obamacare, the bill that Trump’s 2016 campaign ridiculed, which requires employers to cover the cost of birth control and emergency contraception. “This IVF plan is pure populism. It shows that Trump is not a person with a conservative worldview,” says Cole Muzio, president of Frontline Policy Action, a conservative Christian group that has lobbied for anti-abortion measures in Georgia. (The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.)
While Trump’s ambivalence on abortion appears to be an attempt to please moderates and conservatives, his stance on IVF offers a strong indication of which voters he is most keen to appeal to. This year, the Trump campaign has targeted white and suburban women, which is key. Voting Blocks In the last presidential election, college-educated white women were particularly strong supporters of Kamala Harris. More likely Accessing infertility treatment services Stronger supporters of abortion rights are less likely to be moved by Trump’s promises than black or Hispanic women or those without a bachelor’s degree, but he may be able to win back swing state voters who are cold to abortion and strongly in favor of fertility treatment. There are early signs that this strategy might work: A September poll in Michigan, the battleground state where Trump announced his plan to make IVF free, found that 29% of independents opposed abortion. More likely That’s why I support his 2024 campaign.
This advantage may come at the expense of another, but still important, constituency of Trump’s opponents: abortion. Voters who identify as Christian and pro-lifeThe former president’s recent comments Angry Some abortion opponents argue that life begins at conception, and that discarding embryos during IVF is tantamount to murder. Trump’s pledge may dampen some of the enthusiasm of white evangelicals, whose overwhelming support is seen as necessary to win the election. But Trump seems to have decided that he can offend these Americans without losing their votes. As Peter Wehner argued in “Abortion Opponents,” Atlantic Ocean Last month, it was predicted that many anti-abortion voters would continue to support Trump, even if reluctantly, and Muzio agreed: “It will be the difference between quietly going to the ballot box and voting for Trump, and going to Sunday school and encouraging your friends to do the same,” Muzio told me.
While Harris has linked IVF and abortion access as part of a unified platform on reproductive rights, Trump has sought to separate the two. He has framed his free IVF plan as a family issue, linking it to his child tax credit proposal. It’s unclear whether that distinction is meaningful to voters. Less than 1 percent A third of registered voters rank abortion as the most pressing issue facing the country. But in an August poll of voters in three key battleground states, a majority of women cited abortion as the most important issue that would determine their vote in the presidential election. In September, 14 percent of all voters said abortion was their No. 1 issue. Choosing IVF and avoiding abortion is a gamble that could determine who occupies the White House next year.
