Becoming a public health expert means learning how to imagine the worst scenario of human mankind in infectious diseases. But for decades, everyone in the United States had to consider some of the most catastrophic pathogens in history. A wide range of vaccinations eliminated several diseases, such as measles, polio, and rubella, and more than dozens of diseases. However, in the past few years, as a child has a vaccination rate. Soaked Nationwide, some of the most fictional people in infectious diseases are beginning to seem plausible again.
The new Trump administration has just reduced the outlook. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., one of the most famous anti -vaccine activists in Japan, was confirmed as the next secretary of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, for example, his actions could create a future in the United States. If the sex is high. It is reported that his new position is said to give him a considerable power to FDA and CDC. Weighing plan-Carding a major vaccine advisory committee to X -it can encourage medical providers to provide children with few shots, and to promote a nation to abolish vaccination orders at school. Can do. (Kennedy’s press team did not respond to the comment request.)
Kennedy’s goal is to provide more options to people, as he said, and many Americans still seek the vaccine. Most Americans Support vaccination in childhood School vaccine requirements. a KFF public opinion polls However, it was released today that even in the past year, the proportion of parents, who skip or delayed shots for children, has risen to one in six. The more individuals who choose to avoid vaccination, the more these decisions will crack the collective defense of society. Most of the internal organs may not be apparent immediately. In order for some viruses and bacteria to break through, the national vaccination rate may be considerable. But for others, the gap between them There is no outbreak and Outbreak It is unpleasant and small. The dozens of experts I spoke for this story were confident in the pessimistic theory of how rapidly the epidemic began.
Paul Office, a pediatrician at the Philadelphia Pediatric Hospital and one of the two rotavirus vaccines available in the United States, only looks at his own family to see the potential results. His parents were born in a deadly respiratory disease. He himself had measles, mumps, rubella, and chicken PO, and exposed the contract polio. Vaccination means that his own children do not need to deal with any of these illnesses. However, the vaccination rate was so far away that his children were very well done. Unlike past occurrence, these future epidemics will wipe out the countries that have been released for a long time from these illnesses.
“Yeah,” said when I asked him to draw a US portrait with little vaccination. “Let’s go to Abyss.”
If the vaccination rate is fully reduced, one of the first -resurrected first diseases will almost certainly become measles. Specialist It is widely considered Viral disease spreading in the air, Most infectious pathogens。 Before the measles vaccine became available in 1963, the virus was estimated. 3 to 4 million Americans Every year, about 1,000 people suffer from serious swelling of the brain, of which about 400 to 500 will die. There were many survivors Permanent brain injury。 You can also have measles Control the immune system for yearsMake people susceptible to other infectious diseases.
Vaccination was the key to removing the measles, which was declared here in 2000, to the United States. Very high immunity rate-Approximately 95 % vaccine charaExperts need to close the virus. “It’s enough to start outbreaks with a slight immersion,” said Bogma Kabizen Titanji, a doctor of the university infectious disease. That was exactly the case. The occurrence of Hakata is particularly low in vaccination, and is still occurring in the American community that many children have. I missed the MMR shot in recent yearsThe virus found their opening. 16 Last year, recorded in the United States in 2024, it has become one of the worst for measles since the turn of Millennium.
However, for all measles speed, “I bet on the first thing that Haping cough exists,” said Samuel Scarpino, an infectious modeler at the North Eastern University. Bacterial diseases can cause intense coughs to fracture coughs. The serious results include pneumonia, convulsions, and brain damage. Although the transmission is slower than measles, it has not been excluded from the United States, so it is ready to extend RAMP. Chicken Pox also raises similar problems. Effective vaccines are surrounded in the 1990s, but very infectious viruses are still in low levels nationwide. Many of today’s parents may still remember the itchy blisters caused by the passing ritual, but it is unusual for illness. complications Sepsis, untreated bleeding, and as severe as bacterial infections known as carnivorous diseases. And this disease is much more serious for the elderly.
These are only part of the disease that the United States must deal with. The children to get All vaccines are recommended on a daily basis as a child Protected from 16 diseases. If each has a considerable chance of doing a considerable comeback, it is necessary to maintain the import. Perhaps the rubella returns, infected with a pregnant woman, and the child can be born with blind or heart defect. Maybe meningitis, pneumococcal disease, or Influenzahemophilus The disease caused by bacteria generally found in the airway increases rapidly, and there is a percentage of meningitis and pneumonia. A typical illness of childhood -day care, a streptococci’s throat, and the waves of the winter norovirus-s are very familiar and often more terrifying. Rotovirus’s parchment diarrhea; tetanus convulsions. Many of these illnesses are “the only protection we have”, and one of the developers of rubella vaccines, Stanley Protkin, is a vaccine. He said.
How can the occurrence of these various diseases and when can it be generated? It is impossible to predict. The vaccination rate will not decrease evenly in the region or the overall population statistics. Also, it does not decrease straight or quickly. People may refuse more recently developed and politicized vaccines (consider HPV or COVID shots). And existing immunity can still be cushioned for the flood of infectious, especially from the pathogens that are very rare in the world for a while. For example, polio would be more difficult to establish in the United States than measles. It was declared that it was excluded from the US continent in the 1990s, and is unique to two countries. This can lead to an incorrect impression that a decrease in vaccination rate has little effect.
After all, a decrease in vaccination rate does not guarantee the occurrence. The pathogen must first find a vulnerable group. This type of conference can take years. Again, the invasion may not be long in a world where travel is connected. The population of this country is more susceptible to illness than the past few decades. Americans are older on average. The obesity rate is At a historic high price。 The appearance of organ transplantation and cancer treatment means that the substantial sector of the population is immunofiring. Many other Americans are chronically ill. Some of these individuals do not have any protection reactions to vaccination, and rely on other people’s immunity to prevent dangerous illness.
If various viruses and bacteria begin to reclaim in earnest, the possibility of getting sick will increase even in healthy and vaccinated adults. Vaccines do not provide comprehensive or permanent protection. The more pathogens around you, the more likely you are to break through one person’s defense. It is known that immunity for mumps and hundred -day coughs is incomplete and has declined a few years after vaccination. And the immunity generated by the vaccine is generally very durable, but experts said to me, Bill Hanage, an infectious epidemiologist at Harvard University’s Faculty of Public Health. : He said that the only true scale would be. See the virus breaking through the population that has not been dealt with in decades.
Probably, the most uneasy characteristic of the future with few vaccination is how much the United States is ready for the resurrection of pathogens. Most medical providers in Japan do not have practical knowledge to diagnose and treat diseases such as measles and polio. Catholin Edwards, a pediatrician at Vanderbilt University, told me. Many pediatricians have never seen chicken pox outside of textbooks.
In order to catch up, medical providers need to get used to the signs and symptoms that may have been seen only in old textbooks and photos. Hospitals need to use a diagnostic test that has not been used for years. Some of these tools may be old because the pathogens have evolved. Antibiotical resistance can be more difficult to eliminate specific bacterial infections than several decades ago. Also, some protocols may feel that it is contrary to intuition, and the official states: Influenzahemophilus You may need to transport it to a hospital without an ambulance to minimize the potential for stress and dissonance to cause a potentially deadly convulsions.
According to Titanji, the learning curve is taking care of the sick. Already shrinking pediatric workers have a hard time seeing the onslaught, and the children (probably the victims of the future occurrence), especially the sensitive Sally Palmer, New York -Press Vitalia/Weil Corner Medical Care. Sally Palmer, a pediatrician at the center, told me. If the over -grown medical workers are burdened, they are more likely to miss infection early, and more difficult to treat those cases. And if epidemiologists have to monitor more pathogens, they will be less likely to track a single infections, making it easier to spread quietly.
The greater the growth, the more difficult it is to contain. Ultimately, measles may become a climate disease again in the polio of the United States, and there is a possibility that the lawsuit may be immediately followed, protecting the battle to eradicate illness, and is a Yale infectious epidemiologist. One Virginia Pizzer told me. The miserable scenario (the deepest depth of the deep by) can reduce the average life expectancy in the United States. Revoting many of these illnesses is a monument. It was carried to the heel in the United States only by almost several decades of almost comprehensive vaccination. The same is needed to re -trigger it from the country. But this job will be different, and it will definitely be difficult. It not only does CAX to accept new vaccines, but also persuade them to take out what they opt -out.
The future is never guaranteed. Especially if you remember what Americans are AT in the crisis. Many people in this country are too young to remember the cost of these illnesses. However, Edwards, a pediatrician for 50 years, is not. As a young girl, she saw her childhood acquaintance became a disabled person with a polio. She clearly recalls a patient who has lost her meningitis a few decades ago. In the late stage of her career, the spine tap was small and the cutting was reduced. The job of taking care of recent children for vaccines simply reduces death much less.