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NOAA forecasters are raising expectations for the 2023 hurricane season based on record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday. Increased number of forecasters There is a 60% chance that we will have an above-average season. Forecasters currently have 14 to 21 named storms, including 6 to 11 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 intensity, with winds of 111 mph or more. expected to persist.
Forecasters at NOAA’s Center for Climate Prediction predicted a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season in May, with 12 to 17 named storms likely to form and a near-normal season. I thought it was expensive. The Climate Prediction Agency’s chief hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said on Thursday that a correction to the forecast, which is regularly released in August near the season’s center, is a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean that has not been observed since records began in 1950. He said it was based on sea surface temperature. Center, a division of the National Weather Service.
“I think people should be concerned and prepared for the storms this forecast suggests,” he said.
The forecast comes as many in Florida continue to recover from last year’s unprecedented season that included a one-two punch from Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. After flattening parts of southwestern Florida in September, Ian caused widespread flooding in the interior of the state, causing $113 billion in damage and 156 deaths. According to NOAA, it is the third most costly hurricane in U.S. history, behind Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017. Hurricane Nicole, a rare occurrence in November, flooded an area of Florida where Ian escaped damage.
Researchers at Stony Brook University in New York and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California concluded that climate change has increased rainfall on Ian by more than 10 percent. Over 20 inches of rain fell in some areas. Another September storm, Hurricane Fiona, caused devastating flooding in Puerto Rico.
This year’s unusual combination of factors has left forecasters entering the season with more uncertainty than usual. Hurricanes tend to be more active as Atlantic sea surface temperature rises, but a developing El Niño was expected to dampen hurricane activity. El Niño is a naturally occurring climatic phenomenon that begins with warm waters in the Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns around the world. Changes in airflow could lead to milder, wetter winters in the United States and drought in Australia and India. The Pacific has more hurricanes, and the Atlantic has fewer hurricanes.
Rosenkrands said Thursday that many of May’s forecasts did not foresee a continuation of unprecedented Atlantic sea surface temperatures. He also said that changes related to El Niño appear to be coming later than expected, with some models not showing an effect until September.
“It’s just that the effects of El Niño were late in appearing over the Atlantic,” he said. “It’s not a momentary thing. It’s going to spread.”
NOAA also said below-normal wind shear forecasts, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds, and a near-to-above-normal West African monsoon are the main drivers of the forecast revision.
This season has already been an active one, with five storms of at least tropical intensity, including one hurricane. An average season has 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The season starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th.
Amy Green covers the environment and climate change from Orlando, Florida.She is a mid-career journalist and author whose extensive reports on the Everglades are featured in her book moving waterpublished by Johns Hopkins University Press, and Podcast drained, available anywhere you can get a podcast. Amy’s work has been recognized with many awards, including the prestigious Edward R. Murrow Award and the Public Media Journalists Association Award.
This story was originally inside climate news.