As the NCAA basketball tournament begins in earnest, March Madness will come back to us. Until 68 teams face off in a series of matchups, only one champion left. Millions of sports fans are taking part in creating their own bracket predictions. The challenge is that there are so many variables and potential consequences. It is almost impossible to devise the perfect bracket, and it is to call the results of all matchups correctly. From amateur enthusiasts to professional sports analysts at the Media Giants, there is plenty of online advice. (CBS Sports Line) Bracket projection modelFor example, simulate all games in a tournament 10,000 times to optimize prediction accuracy.
But what if, for example, you’re not just beating down an office pool, but you don’t want to blindly track the seeds and predictions of those elaborate models? What simple strategies could you employ to gain an advantage in a crowded field? Albert Cohen of Michigan State specializes in statistics and actuarial science, including sports analysis, but is not the gambler himself. (People “seeing life based on risk” are, of course, risk aversion when it comes to gambling.) However, he provided insight into the science of “parentsynthesis” and some useful general tips.
ARS Technica: There are as many parentheses as possible. What is the actual probability that someone would choose the perfect one?
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