CNN
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Ukrainian officials say Russia has learned from its mistakes on the battlefield, making it harder for Ukrainian missiles to hit ammunition depots and logistics depots. long missiles, they say.
They also believe that the appointment of General Valery Gerasimov as commander of the Russian offensive in Ukraine was the final throw of the dice by the Kremlin after numerous reorganizations of the military hierarchy.
Vadim Skivitsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency, told CNN on Monday that Russia has begun distributing military supplies “all over the territory of the Russian Federation.”
In particular, from the logistics hub of Russia’s Rostov region, “everything is moving to the southern regions via Crimea,” he said.
“What is important for the Russian Federation is that the center of gravity is the very hub, and we need to hit them to disrupt any kind of supply system,” Skivitsky said.
And this would require “attacks on installations in the Russian Federation,” as well as in Russian-occupied Crimea, Skivitsky said.
He explained that the Russian logistics system is 80 to 120 kilometers (50 to 75 miles) from the front line.
Another reason for the long-range artillery is that multiple Ukrainian officials told CNN that Ukraine wants to launch a counterattack before Russian reinforcements are equipped and ready to move. But to do that, Kyiv needs to be able to reach further.
“In order to prepare a counterattack or offensive operation, we need to destroy not only the front line, but many installations deep within 100 to 150 kilometers from the enemy’s front line,” said Skibitsky.
“Especially now, we need tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and heavy weapons that enable rapid counterattack operations against the enemy to form strong strike groups.”
Last summer, US-made HIMARS were highly effective in destroying such hubs in the occupied Kherson region of southern Ukraine. But they do not have the range to attack Russian territory.
The Biden administration has so far been careful not to provide Ukraine with a system that could reach Russia.
Ukraine is now gearing up for a brutal spring, expecting a Russian offensive aimed at completing the seizure of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This is the goal set by President Vladimir Putin for Russia’s “Special Military Operations”.
“The Russian Federation will continue to pursue offensive actions after failing to achieve its main objective, the complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” Skivitsky said. Efforts of the Russian Federation. ”
He also sees the reorganization of the Russian army. “You can see that the units that were trained in Belarus are already in Luhansk,” he said. “They are preparing and have created reserves. These reserves include units of the Airborne Forces.”
The top Ukrainian military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhniy, said in December that Ukraine expected a Russian attack between the end of January and March.
The question remains whether the recent remodeling of the Russian military command could delay such an attack.
Skivitsky said, “Giving all responsibility to Gerasimov probably [Putin’s] This is our last chance to rectify the situation and at least partially achieve our goals” set at the start of the invasion.
“Now all resources, all armed forces, the entire logistics system, the entire system of manufacturing, supplying and maintaining weapons available to the armed forces are in his hands,” he said.
However, Ukrainians believe that the Russian military apparatus is still deficient in some respects and expect further changes in its hierarchical structure.
“According to our assessment, this is not a final change,” said Skibitsky. “[Putin] There is a real problem with commands, both at the top level generals and at the lowest level of platoon or company commanders. ”
Skivitsky and other Ukrainian officials who spoke to CNN say Russia is also struggling to produce enough weapons, especially tanks, combat vehicles and artillery systems. “In terms of new weapons, we see very little,” he said.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials told CNN earlier this month that Russian artillery fire had fallen dramatically from wartime peaks, down as much as 75 percent in some places.
They said Russia could be rationing artillery shells due to a shortage of supplies or could be part of a broader reassessment of tactics in the face of successful Ukrainian counterattacks. .
Ukrainians also seem to believe that Wagner’s private military contractors, who have been prominent in attacks on the eastern town of Soledar, may have peaked.
“Everything related to the successes of the Axis in Donetsk and Luhansk will be attributed to the Russian Federation and the forces of Gerasimov,” Skivitsky said, adding that oligarch Evgeny Prigozhin’s mercenary group was reduced because of the Russians inside. He added that it was likely to play a role in the power struggle.
“The Russian military leadership is trying to downplay Prigozhin’s role and status as much as possible so that his position in the Kremlin hierarchy cannot be strengthened,” he said.
After weeks of attention focused on the eastern city of Bakhmut and Wagner’s presence on the battlefield, Ukrainian officials expect the next phase of the conflict to unfold on a wider scale.
“Wagner no longer acts alone,” said Skivitsky. “Other reserve forces, such as the Airborne Forces and other combat brigades of the Russian Federation, were brought there, so we can no longer speak of Wagner operating there.”
