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Things may be moving on the hostage front. Hezbollah was separated from Hamas by agreeing to a ceasefire. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan returned to the region for discussions. Qatar has said it wants to expel Hamas, take hostages and resume ceasefire negotiations. Donald Trump has appointed a special hostage envoy and issued a statement warning that hostages held by Hamas will be freed by Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, or they will face “a hell of a punishment.” The hostages include seven Americans. Three are estimated to be alive, while four were sadly killed and continue to languish in Gaza for over 400 days. Will a transition between regimes break the impasse and something happen that will free them from captivity?
We don’t know for sure, but we can look to history for lessons from similar situations. In 1980, Iran seized the U.S. Embassy in Iran and held Americans hostage for 444 days, disrupting the U.S. election and riveting the country. The entire last year of Mr. Carter’s tenure was devoted to the hostage crisis. Ted Koppel’s “Nightline” It started as a crisis show and eventually became a general news program. But that first year, “Nightline” seemed to sum up Carter’s incompetence every night. Things got worse when Carter’s rescue attempt ended in an embarrassing failure. Dovish Secretary of State Cyrus Vance announced his resignation in protest, not because the effort had failed, but because he objected to attempting such an effort at all.
The failure to rescue the hostages became an obstacle to Mr. Carter’s reelection bid. Carter’s preoccupation with the crisis limited his ability to campaign against Ronald Reagan, which he desperately needed to do as the situation depressed the vote count. Mr. Carter’s genius pollster, Pat Cadell (all 29 when the hostages were taken), told Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan as Election Day approached that the hostage crisis was politically killing Mr. Carter. He complained that he was there. For whatever reason the Democrats have left us, we’ve never seen anything like this in the polls, we’re neck-and-neck with Reagan to the end here and everything is against us. About hostages. ”
Families of Israeli hostages hold rally in Central Park; Biden calls on Trump to bring back loved ones
President Reagan meets with members of Congress, from left, Congressman Bob Michel, Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, and Senator Howard Baker, at the White House. (Bettman/Contributor/Getty)
The Reagan campaign prepared for an “October surprise.” If Mr. Carter were able to negotiate the release of the hostages before the election, would that victory wipe out Mr. Reagan’s momentum?
During his campaign, President Reagan wanted to avoid doing anything that could be seen as sabotaging the Carter administration’s negotiations to free the hostages. President Reagan told reporters that as long as there was any hope of bringing the hostages back alive, “political candidates should exercise restraint in the interest of national unity.” But on the campaign trail, President Reagan told voters he would restore respect for the United States, pledging that “never again will a foreign dictator dare to break into our embassy and take our people hostage.”
The hostage crisis was perhaps a classic example of President Reagan’s broader case against President Carter’s weak leadership and foreign policy. In response to President Carter’s failed rescue mission, President Reagan said, “The confidence of foreign nations in American leadership against the forces of brutality and barbarism is such that we must mobilize all our spiritual strength as a nation, restore our economic strength, and defend ourselves.” Rebuild our capabilities and strengthen our alliances with other peace-loving nations.”
Although Carter was ultimately defeated by Reagan, the upcoming change of government brought new energy to the hostage release effort. Carter redoubled his efforts, determined to keep the hostages under observation and help them escape. Reagan was a new actor on the world stage, but Iranians didn’t know what to make of him. President Reagan made little mention of hostages during his campaign, but he reacted strongly to President Carter’s suggestion in late October that President Reagan didn’t understand things. President Reagan reacted vehemently, saying, “I cannot understand why 52 Americans have been held hostage for almost a year.” Additionally, Democratic Party and media hysteria that Reagan was some kind of warmonger trying to cause nuclear Armageddon may have influenced the Ayatollah’s calculations on whether to release American hostages before the Reagan presidency. Highly sexual.
During the final months of his administration, lame-duck Carter focused intensely on the hostage crisis. Carter had his agents negotiate what eventually became the Algiers Accords, signed on January 19, 1981. Carter slept little and was constantly updated late into the night.
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President Jimmy Carter speaks at a town meeting in Elk City, Oklahoma, March 24, 1979.
At 7 a.m. on Inauguration Day, President Reagan was asleep when President Carter called him with an update on the hostages. Carter stayed up all night after the negotiations. Carter called back at 8:30, while Reagan was awake, and told him he thought the hostages would be released that morning. Carter was too optimistic. Eager to further humiliate Mr. Carter, the Iranians waited until President Reagan was officially inaugurated before formally releasing the hostages.
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There is no indication that Joe Biden is all that committed to the American hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza. Hamas, which also killed more than 30 Americans, appears to have little fear or even respect for Biden. But similar dynamics may be at work. President Trump’s “pay like hell” statement and meeting with hostage families indicate both growing concern for the hostages and waning patience with Hamas and its refusal to make any concessions.
The news that Hamas has provided Egypt with a list of hostages included in its agreement with Israel, including for the first time American citizens, raises questions about how President Trump’s impending return to office will affect the hostage situation. It shows how much you are giving. On January 20, when President Trump, unlike his predecessors, uses the full gamut of America’s military, intelligence, and economic tools to free hostages, we can expect more than rhetoric. What President Trump does next after returning to the Oval Office could force Hamas and its promoters in Qatar and Turkey to release the hostages by Inauguration Day. Like Carter, no one expects Biden to hold a vigil over the hostage crisis or any other issue anytime soon. But the aftermath of the previous hostage crisis could be a harbinger of what’s to come this time.
