The Next President Will Have to Deal With Bird Flu

The president always seems to have a crisis to deal with. George W. Bush caused 9/11. Barack Obama had the Great Recession. Donald Trump has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Joe Biden started a war in the Middle East. For America’s next president, the crisis could be bird flu.

The United States is in the midst of an unprecedented outbreak of avian influenza, also known as H5N1. Since 2022, the virus has killed millions of birds and spread to mammals, including cattle. Dairy farms are struggling to contain outbreaks. A small number of people also became ill, but most were farm workers who spent a lot of time near chickens and cows. But most Americans remain unfazed by the bird flu. No one has died or become seriously ill in the United States, and humans rarely spread the virus to others, so the risk to us is considered low.

On Friday, fears of human-to-human transmission gradually grew. The CDC has confirmed that four health care workers in Missouri became ill after caring for patients infected with bird flu. A few weeks ago, three other Missourians showed symptoms of bird flu after coming into contact with the same person. It is still unclear whether the worker was infected with H5N1 or any other respiratory illness. Only one person underwent an H5N1 test, which was negative.

The CDC says the risk to humans remains unchanged, but the Missouri incident highlights that the virus is likely to create additional fear about human-to-human transmission. There is no sign that the virus is slowing down. In the absolute worst-case scenario, where Friday’s news is the first sign that the virus is spreading freely from person to person, we are hurtling towards a new pandemic. But the outbreak need not be so dire as to cause headaches for Americans and liability for the next president.

Either Trump or Kamala Harris will inherit a nightmarishly complex, controversial, and sometimes slow H5N1 response. Three government agencies share responsibility for the bird flu response: FDA, CDC, and USDA, but it is unclear which agency is truly responsible. For example, the USDA primarily protects farmers, while the CDC focuses on public health and the FDA monitors the safety of milk.

Adding to the complexity, much of the power rests with states, many of which are reluctant to involve the federal government in the response. States are typically required to invite federal agents to directly assess potential bird flu cases, and some states have balked at allowing federal agents onto farms. The agriculture commissioner for Texas, which has emerged as one of the bird flu hotspots, recently said the federal government needs to: “Please stand back.” Meanwhile, wastewater samples, a common method of tracking the spread of the virus, show bird flu outbreaks in 10 cities in the state.

There are limits to what the government can do alone. Only 14 Americans have knowingly contracted avian influenza, but we have a woefully incomplete picture of how widespread the disease is among humans. Approximately 230 people have been tested for the virus nationwide since March. The federal government has tried to force farm workers to get tested, sometimes offering $75 for blood and nasal swabs, but efforts have struggled to gain traction. This may be due to a variety of factors, including mistrust of the federal government due to farmworkers’ immigration status and a lack of awareness of the growing threat of bird flu. A USDA spokesperson said the agency expects testing numbers to increase as the agency “continues to provide support to farmers.”

You must be experiencing a serious sense of deja vu by now. In 2020, the United States remained in the dark about the coronavirus as testing became scarce, many states did not publicly report coronavirus cases, and the federal government and states battled over lockdowns. was active within. The systemic problems that plagued the pandemic response remain obstacles, and it’s unclear whether either candidate has a plan to resolve them. Both Trump and Harris seem intent on pretending that the alarming signs of bird flu simply don’t exist. Neither has outlined plans to contain the virus or said anything publicly about it. (The Trump and Harris campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.) Things need to change quickly if the United States is to avoid repeating its COVID-19 mistakes. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, stressed the need for more widespread testing and vaccination of people at high risk of contracting the virus. (The federal government has a stockpile of avian influenza vaccines but has not yet deployed them.)

The H5N1 virus has already shown potential to undermine both candidates’ pledges to lower food prices. Poultry flocks have been hit hard by bird flu, with egg prices soaring 28% compared to a year ago. (Inflation also contributed to the rise in prices, but bird flu primarily responsible.) The next president will need to negotiate with America’s dairy industry if he wants to get useful data on how widely the virus is spreading. Dairy farmers Reluctance to test workers and animals This is because they fear financial loss. But none of this compares to the chaos the new president will have to deal with if this virus spreads more freely among humans. For Americans, that will likely mean a return to masks, another vaccine, and quarantine. some expert They warn that schools could be affected if the virus begins to spread to humans.

Bird flu doesn’t seem like a winning message for either candidate. Talk of preparing for infectious diseases of all kinds evokes fears of uncertainty, isolation, and inconvenience that Americans are still trying to shake off even after the pandemic. It is difficult to imagine that either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris would begin their presidencies with precautions that so many people have come to loathe. Unfortunately, the next commander-in-chief may not have a choice.