Trade details: The Baltimore Orioles acquired RHP Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for outfielder Matthew Etzel, infielder/outfielder Mack Holbert and RHP Jackson Baumeister.
Zach Eflin has fallen off a bit this year after a breakout season in 2023, but the addition of the right-hander gives the Orioles exactly what they need: an above-average starting pitcher who can pitch efficient innings.
Eflin has good control and has the second-best walk rate among starting pitchers this year behind only the Seattle Mariners’ George Kirby, who could hit President Franklin Roosevelt with a fastball in his nostril the second he put the ball in the strike zone. It’s also the lowest walk rate of Eflin’s career, lowering it to a career-high for the second straight year.
Throwing strikes is a big part of why Eflin has been successful, even in years where his strikeout rate is down from this year (18.9%) to 2023 (26.5%). He’s limiting baserunners and making it harder to hit home runs, so while he’s hitting the ball more than a typical starting pitcher at his level, it doesn’t do him as much damage.
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Eflin’s pitching has dropped off a bit this year, which likely explains at least some of his drop in strikeout rate. He’s lost some velocity and movement on some of his pitches, particularly his cutter, which has allowed harder contact and fewer ground balls.
And his best pitch, the curveball, has performed pretty badly despite not changing at all. By every metric it looks the same as it did in 2023, but it went from plus-10 runs last year to minus-6 this year. That’s his worst performance with a curveball since he was a relief pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017, when it still wasn’t a plus pitch, but I think that’s the unlucky part of Eflin’s story.
The Orioles have struggled to find a replacement for Kyle Bradish since he went on the disabled list. (Jim MacIsaac/Getty Images)
The Orioles have been desperate to fill out their starting rotation since Kyle Bradish went on the disabled list after his June 14 start. They removed Cole Irvin from the rotation in late June, Cade Povich struggled through six starts, Chase McDermott had a poor debut and every other Orioles starter this year is either out of the rotation or on the 60-day disabled list. Even the version of Eflin we saw in 2024 is an upgrade, making him a better option to start the third playoff game than Dean Kremer or the surprising Albert Suarez.
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Considering Eflin was one of the best pitchers in the American League last year and that at least some of his decline this year is simply coincidence, this is a mild return for Eflin’s one-plus year tenure.
The Rays acquired three promising prospects, none of whom are expected to play regular roles, most notably outfielder Matthew Etzel, who at least has the athletic ability to exceed expectations.
Etzel is big and strong, but hits small and wastes all his power when he hits from a tight stance. Since being promoted to Double-A, he has a .391 slugging percentage with just eight extra-base hits in 32 games. He needs to work on his swing to be a game-play player. Currently, he is a 60-point runner (on a scouting scale of 20-80) and plays solid defense at the plate, but he lacks the impact of his hit to be more than a fourth outfielder. He needs a hard hitter.
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Right-hander Jackson Baumeister has 40% control over his two pitches, primarily a fastball and a curveball, but he rarely uses a changeup, which has already given him problems against lefties. His pitches aren’t bad, and he has a slider that could be a weapon, but hitters seem to get a good grip on them and he’s done very little this year to get hitters to chase pitches outside the zone. To establish himself as a starter, Baumeister needs a third pitch for lefties, better control and control, and maybe a more deceptive pitch. That’s a tall order.
Utility player Mack Horvat has had a disappointing first year in pro ball, never showing the power that made the 2023 second-round draft prospect out of the University of North Carolina. Horvat batted .233/.328/.417 in High-A in his age-22 (just turned 23) season, which shouldn’t be too tough for an ACC product. He’s hitting well on medium contact and not much of a two-strike approach.
There are some good signs — he’s not striking out much, he’s not whiffing, and he’s only spreading the zone too much when he gets two strikes — but his value was always going to be in his hitting, and that hasn’t happened. He seems like a much bigger challenge for the Rays’ player development group than Etzel has been, given his ability and performance so far.
(Top photo: Nathan Ray Seabeck/USA Today)
