Manhattan has been a hotspot for buyers since the summer of 2022, but the tide is changing, according to a new report.
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While Manhattan home sellers face an unusually difficult market, a new report finds buyers are encountering a surprising opportunity to purchase real estate in one of the nation’s most expensive markets. Suggests.
The report, shared with Inman by real estate analytics firm Urban Digs, shows that potential buyers are currently in a strong position in Manhattan, with sellers facing a period of tiring and low activity when they are ready to bring buyers a better deal. He claims to be fighting.
However, the buyer’s market is bound to end soon, the report said, as lower mortgage rates are likely to increase seasonal activity.
For the past 18 months, the prevailing theory in the Manhattan market, and in much of the country, has been a severe shortage of inventory, but more recent trends suggest that theory is beginning to change. the report’s authors told Inman.
“As we started looking at the data, we started to see that the number of deals closed in November and December was slightly up compared to last year,” said John Walkup, co-founder of Urban Digs. “Everything we’ve been reading and hearing, this low volume, as the price per square foot starts to creep up, maybe that narrative is losing momentum and we’re on the brink. Something new is going to happen here. ”
urban digs
Looking at price per square foot trends in Manhattan’s condominium resale market, the report found that prices in Manhattan have fallen about 10% from their peak in April 2023. The report’s authors expect seasonality to increase as winter turns to spring, meaning now is an ideal time for buyers looking to take advantage of lower mortgage rates. ing.
The report also found that illiquidity was low, with the measure of demand falling further to a three-year low.
“There are fewer active buyers, but those who buy in illiquid markets are more likely to do so than those who buy in liquid, active markets that don’t offer discounts or leverage. “There is a tendency to look back,” the report’s authors wrote.
The current environment in Manhattan is definitely tough for sellers, according to UrbanDigs’ Listing Climate Index. As more listings are successful and contracts are signed, the index will rise. However, the index has been gradually declining since the spring of 2023. By that logic, buyers should be in a better position, the report argues.
urban digs
“It is a challenging environment for sellers and has remained so for much of the past 19 months,” the report said. “On the flip side, this is a moment of opportunity for willing and able buyers.”
The report notes that Manhattan has been in a tough but prolonged buyer’s market since the summer of 2022, but seasonal trends and changes in mortgage rates quickly shift the position back in favor of sellers. It states that there is a possibility, and predicts seasonal fluctuations. We plan to begin full-scale activities in February.
““The buyer leverage window should remain open for several more weeks, but is likely to fade thereafter as activity picks up,” the report said.
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