In this photo released on November 20, 2023, a Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea.
Houthi military media | via Reuters
Drone and missile attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants have disrupted shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, a narrow waterway through which about 10% of global trade passes.
Over the weekend, U.S. Central Command announced that it had shot down “14 unmanned aerial systems launched in a wave of drones from Houthi-held areas of Yemen.” The next day, oil major BP announced it was “temporarily suspending” all shipping through the Red Sea, following similar decisions by shipping giants Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM.
The Pentagon announced Monday that it is forming a maritime security coalition with allies to counter the threat and protect shippers who have diverted more than $80 billion worth of cargo from the Red Sea as of Tuesday.
Many tankers and cargo ships that would normally travel to the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal have instead been rerouted around Africa, adding an average of 14 to 15 days to their voyages. International logistics company DHL warned that “the diversion will significantly increase transit times between Asia and Europe, requiring shipping companies to increase their planned transport capacity.”
The changes have already led to higher ship insurance premiums and higher oil prices. And US military power in the region may not be enough to quell the chaos.
“Dedicated naval task forces will be able to more effectively intercept drone and missile attacks and thwart boarding operations, but task forces cannot be everywhere at once,” Ryan Ball said. Lane’s senior Middle East and North Africa analyst told CNBC.
“As long as there are significant numbers of civilian vessels passing through the area, there will be many targets for the Houthis.”
But who are the insurgents attacking the ships and why are they doing so? And is the US-led Naval Security Coalition doing enough to make the Red Sea trade route safe for trade again? Will it be effective?
Who are the Houthis?
The Houthis are a Shiite Muslim sect called Zaidi Muslims, a minority in Yemen’s majority Sunni sect, whose roots go back hundreds of years. They emerged as a political and militant organization in the 1990s, opposing the Yemeni government over issues such as corruption, U.S. influence and unfair treatment of the group.
After waging an insurgency against the state since the early 2000s, the Houthis took advantage of the instability following the 2011 Arab Spring to increase their following. In 2003, under the influence of the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah, it adopted the official slogan: “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, curse to Jews, victory to Islam.”
Supporters of the Houthi movement shout slogans as they attend a rally commemorating the fourth anniversary of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen’s war in Sanaa, Yemen, March 26, 2019.
Khaled Abdullah | Reuters
In 2014, Houthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, beginning a war with Yemen’s government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia and the West. In 2015, the Saudi-led Arab coalition launched an offensive against Yemen, triggering what the United Nations calls one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The war continues to this day with a limited ceasefire, and the Houthis have carried out hundreds of drone and projectile attacks against Saudi Arabia since the start of the war, with much of the weaponry allegedly provided by Iran. ing.
Infographic titled “Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Houthi threat narrows trade route between East and West” created in Ankara, Turkiye on December 18, 2023. Red Sea threats are a growing concern as major shipping companies reroute routes in response to the growing number of Houthis.
Getty Images
The Houthis now control large parts of Yemen, including Sanaa and the key Red Sea port of Hodeidah, and their power and military power have expanded significantly with heavy support from Iran.
Although some call the group an Iranian proxy, many Yemeni experts argue that it is not a direct proxy of the Islamic Republic. Rather, the two sides have a mutually beneficial relationship, although the Houthis often pursue their own interests that align with Iran’s and enjoy the military and financial support of the Iranian government.
Why would they attack cargo ships?
Yemen’s Houthis have announced their intention to target Israeli shipping and any vessels heading to or departing from Israel in retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza, which has so far killed at least two people. . 20,000 people gathered there, causing a humanitarian catastrophe. Israel launched an offensive on October 7 after the Palestinian militant group Hamas carried out a brutal terrorist attack in southern Israel that killed around 1,200 people and took another 240 hostages.
Mock drones and missiles are displayed in a square in Sanaa, Yemen, on December 7, 2023.
Mohamed Hammoud | Getty Images
In the past, the Houthis have deployed direct-attack drones and anti-ship missiles, and have even physically seized commercial vessels by landing helicopters. And they have no intention of quitting.
Mohamed Al Bukaiti A senior Houthi political official said at a press conference on Tuesday that “even if the United States succeeds in mobilizing the entire world, it will not be possible to stop the genocidal crimes in Gaza and allow food, medicine and fuel to flow to the besieged population.” “Unless we do so, our military operations will not stop.” No matter what the cost. ”
What happens next?
The U.S.-led naval coalition is still forming and “collectively could deploy significant maritime forces in the Red Sea,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a seapower researcher at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. Ta. .other members of The multinational initiative includes the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Spain.
“As we have seen with the USS Kearny’s recent operations in the region, modern ships are capable of providing considerable protection for both themselves and other ships in theater against air and missile threats. We can,” Kaushal said, referring to the downed American missile destroyer. 14 drones appeared on Saturday.
The Galaxy Leader, recently seized by Yemen, is seen in a close-up satellite photo near Hodeidah, Yemen.
Maxar | Getty Images
But Kaushal said that due to the “relatively low cost of drones and missiles” to target ships, and the fact that naval vessels still have to return to friendly ports to reload their air defense interceptor missiles. He said challenges still remain.
Another big risk is the threat of escalation. The most effective way to eliminate the Houthi threat is to attack launch sites, which “will not automatically cause a regional conflagration, but it may increase the risk of a conflagration,” Kaushal said. said, adding, “I don’t think so either way.” The Houthis and Iran, or the United States, want a broader escalation at this point. ”
Corey Lanslem, CEO of maritime security firm Dryad Global, told CNBC that he expects the threat to shipping “will continue for the foreseeable future as long as the conflict in Gaza continues.”
“Depending on how the U.S.-led coalition comes together, if its efforts are effective, it could reduce the threat level to commercial shipping,” he said.
Lanslem expects the economic impact to be minimal in the short term. However, approximately 35,000 ships pass through the Red Sea region every year, mainly carrying out trade between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, accounting for approximately 10% of global GDP. he said.
This means that countries in these regions could face significant economic consequences if the threat continues. If more shipping companies refuse to accept cargo bound for Israel, the Israeli economy could be seriously affected. He already has two companies doing it.
“The challenge for the Houthis is to posed a sufficient threat to prevent shipping lines from passing through the Bab al-Mandab while avoiding action that could provoke an overwhelming military response by the US-led coalition. to present it,” said Torbjörn Soltvedt. Principal MENA Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
“The Houthis do not need to physically prevent ships from passing through the Red Sea; they only need to cause enough disruption to make maritime insurance premiums prohibitive or to force most liners to cease operating in the Red Sea. good.”
