LITTLETON, Colo., Oct 26 (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) cuts fuel demand in key forecasts, as oil giant Shell (SHEL.L) announces job cuts and scaling back its hydrogen business. , Hydrogen bulls have been losing momentum recently. This is a hydrogen business.
This optimistic outlook is in stark contrast to the atmosphere surrounding hydrogen just a few years ago, when hydrogen was widely touted as a potential fuel for the cargo sector and as an input and power source for industries hard to electrify. .
The main problem with hydrogen is that the pace of development in this sector lags far behind that in other sectors, both in terms of supply and demand, most notably in hydrogen power in key transport sectors. The electrification of vehicles seems to negate the need for engines. .
However, while hydrogen’s prospects may have faded from its initial characterization as a panacea for clean-burning energy, the result is that developers are finding that hydrogen is fit-for-purpose for the many use cases that require it. The sector will benefit from a narrower focus on Still promising.
Spread too thin
The big drawback for potential green hydrogen users is that too little is available to do much testing in the real world.
Global production of low-emission hydrogen (produced from fossil fuels using water electrolysis or carbon reduction methods) was less than 1 million tonnes in 2022, according to the IEA.
Additionally, green hydrogen currently costs several times more than the same volume of natural gas.
This combination of scarcity and high cost makes it difficult for potential end users to properly evaluate the potential of using hydrogen as a power fuel or heat source in place of current fuels.
Compounding the problem of insufficient supply is the proposed use of hydrogen in applications where other energy sources are better and cheaper to supply.
For example, in Germany, hydrogen-fueled passenger trains have been developed that emit only water from their exhaust gases.
There has been skepticism for some time whether so-called “hydraulic rails” could become a mass-market solution for the world’s rail systems, as trains can be easily electrified at low cost.
But hydrogen system developers have spent time and attention on these train systems that could have been spent elsewhere.
Hydrogen fuel cells are also being tested as a home heating source, but they require major modifications to key equipment such as boilers and cookers to work.
And with heat pumps rapidly penetrating the home heating market in Europe and elsewhere in recent years, at a fraction of the cost of potential hydrogen installations, domestic hydrogen applications will continue to be scarce. is clear.
Hydrogen is also being considered as an airline fuel, and its proponents argue that because hydrogen is much lighter than traditional jet fuel, the wings of hydrogen-powered planes could be smaller and lighter. are doing.
However, even if the idea of hydrogen airplanes caught on with airlines, it is widely believed that simply equipping airports around the world with the necessary hydrogen fuel tanks and equipment on top of existing fuel infrastructure would be cost-prohibitive. It is considered.
Overall, it is becoming clear that cheaper, easier-to-deploy alternative power sources are already available, and significant investments in pilot programs and utilization research for clean hydrogen applications in heating and transportation systems are needed. Some of it may have been wasted.
Additionally, expertise in hydrogen production and application development is also spread too thinly by these alternative deployment efforts, denying the industry the opportunity to develop the focused skills needed to refine and expand the overall market. may be.
climb the ladder
The most promising areas for potential hydrogen use are highlighted in industry analyst Michael Liebreich’s so-called “hydrogen ladder”.
Liebreich suggests that the hydrogen industry pursues demand opportunities that support the decarbonization of heavy industry, rather than seeking to deploy hydrogen against lower-cost options for homes and transportation systems.
Hydrogen could be very effective in fertilizer production and some chemical production and oil refining applications that currently rely heavily on natural gas.
In fact, Liebreich’s ladder classifies fertilizer production and hydrogenation, hydrocracking, and desulfurization plants and states that there is no viable option other than to use hydrogen as the main input and power source instead of fossil fuels. .
While such applications may lack the potential to build the profile of hydrogen-fueled bus fleets or airlines, they are nonetheless key to producing critical industrial feedstocks that many other major industries depend on.
It will also allow hydrogen developers to accelerate the delivery of scalable solutions for heavy industry, with fewer distractions from trying to generate increased demand for heating and transportation systems, thereby contributing significantly to global emissions reduction efforts. It may be possible.
Report by Gavin Maguire.Editing: Stephen Coates Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. The opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Reuters News, which is based on principles of trust and is committed to integrity, independence and freedom from bias.
