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One more month to go and only one verdict on November’s results. Joe Biden is defeated.
Yes, that’s not a typo. Biden lost.
During the campaign (1 year ago). Three poll numbers stood out: 30, 40, and 97.
Former President Trump dances during a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Center on October 13, 2024 in Prescott Valley, Arizona. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
30%, which is (approximately) the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the “right track.” (Roughly) 40% was the percentage of Americans who approved of Biden’s performance as president.
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These were not good numbers for the incumbent.
Compounding the challenge is the third number: 97%. This is the percentage of Trump supporters (half of all Americans) who think things were better when he was president.
This is an even worse number for those who play against him. That meant the idea that voters could be focused on Trump was a fool’s errand. His voters actually support him, and he can’t go back to thinking “the other guy is at fault.”
These three numbers (starting in January 2024) were not the result of a massive advertising campaign, but rather the result of three years of the Biden administration.
Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images)
When Biden took office as president in 2021, he knew he had a simple but bold goal. It was about proving that the American government could function.
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In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Trump seeks to cut government regulations and uphold President Reagan’s creed (from the time he took office as the first president) that “government is not the solution to the problem. Government is the problem.” The Biden administration was trying to convince the president of his efforts. The American public believed that American government agencies would help alleviate a variety of problems.
His goal was to prove himself both domestically and internationally, especially in the face of increasing competition from China. He said the same thing in his first speech to Congress. ”[President Xi of China] Some believe that democracies cannot compete with authoritarian states in the 21st century because it takes too long to reach consensus. ”
Biden was going to prove them wrong.
A member of Biden’s party told me more tactically: “We will take the shots, defeat the coronavirus, pass a huge infrastructure bill, and run on Morning in America in 2024.”
President Biden receives the third dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine in the South Court Auditorium of the White House on September 27, 2021. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Biden supporters will still argue that much has been accomplished.
By October, the first year of the Biden administration, nearly 75% of Americans had received at least one vaccine shot, and the nation’s public health agencies were ramping up.
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By November, Biden signed a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure bill aimed at funding the kinds of projects that only effective government agencies can develop.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden succeeded in bringing two previously “non-aligned” countries (Sweden and Finland) into NATO, leading many to believe that peace in Europe would be a priority after World War II. They strengthened the organization they believed they were maintaining.
In the face of growing threats from China, Biden formed the Quad, an alliance of India, Japan, South Korea and the United States.
But none of these resulted in any substantive change in the approval of incumbents in any important way in politics.
President Biden shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during an unannounced visit to Kyiv early Monday morning, February 20, 2023. (Fox News)
why?
Voters didn’t feel it. All of this led to a nice press release and some good articles that probably changed the minds of some savvy newspaper readers, but nothing that moved voters.
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By the time 75% of Americans were feeling the pain of being shot in the arm and looking forward to seeing the coronavirus in their rearview mirrors, the Delta and Omicron variants were emerging, and there are no vaccines for them. The effect was low. And that skepticism led to changes in the election.
According to Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA), half of Americans want the government to be more involved in ensuring children are vaccinated, but one-third of them voted for Mr. It received support from half to two-thirds of American voters. They wanted the government to maintain or reduce its current involvement in childhood immunization.
You may have heard of the Infrastructure Act, or the CHIPs Act (which created an agency to invest in high-tech manufacturing in the United States), or the so-called Control Inflation Act, which capped the cost of insulin. But high-profile projects like building new bridges and opening new factories won’t be ready for ribbon-cutting until Donald Trump campaigns for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. Probably.
President Biden hands Sen. Joe Manchin the pen he used to sign the Inflation Control Act at the White House on August 16, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
And while some may think it might be beneficial to strengthen NATO and create a new international organization that seeks to meet China’s international ambitions, the Ukraine war has ended with nearly three years of fighting. It is no wonder that many American voters remain skeptical of the policy, given that it is still at a stalemate. International organization.
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In fact, according to FNVA, more than half of voters supported aid to Ukraine, but nearly a third of them voted for Trump, with more than 70% of the votes voting against more aid. was acquired.
It would have been better if Biden had let his guard down more and been more proactive in granting Ukrainian aircraft and other combat authorizations (and making Biden look stronger if Ukraine was using the planes effectively). Maybe? No one knows, but the impasse revealed his weakness.
One thing that changed voters during President Biden’s term was the withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the aftermath of the tragic airport accident, Biden’s approval ratings for his inauguration slumped and never recovered. As George C. Scott, who played General Patton in the 1970 film “Patton,” said, “Americans love winners and don’t tolerate losers.”
President Biden holds his head in frustration during a controversial press conference following the terrorist attack that killed 13 service members in Kabul, Afghanistan, on August 26, 2021, in Kabul, Afghanistan. . (Getty Images)
Yes, even former Watergate investigator Bob Woodward, who has written critically of almost every president since Nixon, in his book War, said Biden’s response to the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza war. Some people have written that “will be primarily studied.” History provides examples of stable, purposeful leadership. ”
On the government side, some would argue that the policies introduced by Biden and others are likely to yield political results in the coming months.
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The depreciation of the Russian ruble and the destabilization of the economy could lead Putin to conclude a deal favorable to Ukraine.
Israel, which has been fighting a war for more than a year, may be ready to forge a long-term deal with anti-Iranian Arab states based on Biden and Saudi cooperation (and Trump’s Abraham Accords).
President Biden is greeted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after arriving at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport on October 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
65,000 infrastructure projects are already underway.
Several high-tech manufacturing plants are underway with the help of the Chip Act.
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If any of these things happen, Democrats will recognize the Biden team’s accomplishments, but they are unlikely to get to a “ribbon cutting.”
Government-wise, maybe he achieved something. But politically, he was destined to be a one-term president, making it likely impossible for a Democrat to win the presidency in 2024. Because nothing they passed or institutionalized could have a positive impact on the lives of their constituents or on society. It has enough dramatic influence to make voters believe that government can improve your life.
Click here to read more about Arnon Miskin
