It’s time for PewterReport.com’s Two-Point Conversion Postgame column, where we feature two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the most recent Bucs game. Tampa Bay got some long-awaited revenge in Detroit, jumping out to a 6-0 lead and beating the Lions, 20-6. The Bucs were without defensive tackle Vita Vea for the game with a minor knee injury, but their red zone defense was great and Baker Mayfield did enough on offense to help Tampa Bay improve to 2-0.
Two big statements
Statement 1. Buccaneers beat Lions, warns NFC
Call it the measuring stick game.
It could be called a revenge victory.
Whatever you want to call it, though, it was an impressive win for the Buccaneers, a gutsy 20-16 victory in Detroit over the Lions, who beat Tampa Bay a year ago to reach the NFC Championship Game.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield and Lions QB Jared Goff – Photo courtesy of USA Today
The Buccaneers have let the NFC, and really the NFL, know they are a team to watch in 2024.
Suddenly, Tampa Bay is 2-0, while last year’s NFC champions Detroit and San Francisco are 1-1 each.
It’s still early in the season, and a 2-0 start doesn’t mean much right now, as evidenced by the fact that the Buccaneers started 2-0 the past two years before finishing 8-9 and 9-8 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, but it’s better than going 1-1 or even 0-2 like other playoff contenders in the AFC, like the Rams, Bengals and Ravens.
What I liked about this win, and I’m sure you did too, was the fact that Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles and his bruising defense finally made Jared Goff look like a mortal instead of an invincible football god. Bowles and his defensive coaching staff spent the offseason revising last year’s two losses to Detroit and making some changes to the coverage and pass rush.
Tampa Bay didn’t get a sack on Sunday, but they did have 23 pressures and 11 quarterback hits on Goff and forced two interceptions on 60 pass plays. This was in a game without top pass-rushing defensive tackle Kalijah Kansey and with Vita Vea playing just one half before leaving with a knee injury. Yaya Diaby led the team with seven pressures, five hurries and two quarterback hits.
In their playoff loss at Detroit, the Buccaneers pressured Goff just 17 times and hit him just three times on 48 pass plays, including two sacks. Goff was pressured six more times in Week 2 and hit him twice as many times in the Buccaneers’ win.
Buccaneers CB Zion McCollum – Photo Credit: USA Today
In Detroit’s Week 6 win over Tampa Bay, Goff was hit once, sacked three times and was pressured just 16 times on 48 passing plays.
Improved pressure helped, but so did improved pass coverage. Zion McCollum received a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 83.2, allowing just 20 yards on six targets. He also recorded his first career interception on Goff’s first pass of the game and stopped a career-high four passes. Christian Izien, filling in for Antoine Winfield Jr., had Tampa Bay’s other interception.
After his defensive masterpiece in the Buccaneers’ 32-9 wild-card win over the Eagles in revenge, I figured Bowles would have a better game plan against the Lions in last year’s playoff rematch, but Goff’s numbers in the 31-23 win over Tampa Bay were nearly identical to what he put up in a 20-6 win in Week 6. What a shame.
It’s amazing how much changes in a year.
Bowles and his coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for coming up with a much better offensive plan, preparing Izien to play safety despite missing practice because of an illness and getting rookie nickelback Tykee Smith ready for Sunday.
And of course, the players deserve a lot of praise.
Buccaneers S Christian Izien – Photo courtesy of USA Today
“Zion and Izzy got one,” Bowles said. “That play and our defense in the red zone was really the story of the tape. We were pretty good in the red zone. I think we won the turnover battle. They made a lot of plays, they fought down the stretch and we made plays to win the game.”
A key stat from this game was holding the Lions to just 1-of-7 shooting in the red zone. They were down 14-6 in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, but this time in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers defense forced a punt, got an interception, and forced two turnovers on downs at the 11-yard line and the 26-yard line.
Tampa Bay is the real deal this year, full roster or not.
Statement 2. Baker Mayfield is a legitimate MVP candidate
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown six touchdowns in the team’s second straight win, including four touchdown passes in a 37-20 season-opening win over the Commanders. In Sunday’s 20-16 upset win at Detroit, Mayfield didn’t play as well against a strong Lions defense, but he was effective with a passing touchdown and a clutch rushing touchdown. He completed 12 of 19 passes for 185 yards and overcame his first interception of the season.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Mayfield was sacked 4.5 times by Aidan Hutchinson, but he scrambled five times for 34 yards and even evaded a QB keeper in the red zone for an 11-yard touchdown run. His escape ability and improvisation skills made him Tampa Bay’s leading runner.
“He did a great job with his feet and then got open and found Chris (Godwin) for some third down wins right there that kept some drives going for us and we needed everyone of them,” Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowlessaid. [Chris(Godwin)forsomethirddownwinsrighttherethatkeptsomedrivesgoingforusandweneededeveryoneofthem”BucsheadcoachToddBowlessaid
Mayfield’s six touchdowns are more than any other player through the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr has also thrown five touchdowns and one interception, and the Saints are off to a 2-0 start.
Denver’s pass defense has been one of the most stout in the league so far, holding opponents to just 134 passing yards per game, but the Broncos have only faced Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith and Steelers backup Justin Fields through the first two weeks of the season.
If Mayfield can have another multi-touchdown game and, more importantly, lead the team to a 3-0 start, he’ll not only be on track to be selected to his second Pro Bowl, but he’ll also remain a favorite for NFL MVP honors.
2. Probing Questions
Question 1: Is it time to consider a contract extension for Chris Godwin?
Yes, Chris Godwin is a man on a mission. He knows what it was like for Mike Evans to have to play the final year of his contract last season. And Godwin watched Evans live up to expectations, play big, and earn big money. Two-year, $41 million extension When I was 30 years old.
Through two weeks, a hyper-focused Godwin has caught all 15 of his passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns, which already matches his scoring totals for 2023. Godwin is in the final year of a three-year contract that averages $20 million per season.
Chris Godwin two weeks later:
🏴☠️ 15 catchable targets
🏴☠️ 15 catches
🏴☠️ 200 yards
🏴☠️ 91.7 PFF grade
🏴☠️ 158.3 perfect rating on target pic.twitter.com/2zEYdwaUZv— PFF (@PFF) September 16, 2024
Godwin turns 29 in March, and the Buccaneers have to carefully consider the cost of having two aging receivers making more than $20 million for the foreseeable future, but if Godwin continues to play like this all season, Tampa Bay will have no choice but to re-sign him.
Question 2: Is it time to start SirVocea Dennis over KJ Britt?
Buccaneers ILB Cervosia Dennis and Lions RB Jameel Gibbs – Photo courtesy of USA Today
It’s time to start thinking. It’s only been two weeks, but second-year inside linebacker Servosia Dennis is an absolute X-factor for the Buccaneers defense. In fact, I said he was going to be the X-factor for Tampa Bay’s defense in Week 2 against Detroit. in SR’s Fab 5 column on Friday. And I was right.
Dennis received increased playing time on Sunday after recording seven tackles and his first NFL sack in Week 1 against the Commanders, a wise move by Buccaneers head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles. In Week 1, Dennis played 21 snaps to starting inside linebacker KJ Britt’s 39, with Britt recording just five stops.
Against the Lions, Dennis outshot Britt, 44-41, and recorded a career-high 11 tackles, including a quick stop on a fake punt by Detroit to prevent a big play from becoming an even bigger one. Britt finished with four tackles.
This isn’t to say Britt is a bad defender, just that the faster, more athletic Dennis is showing signs of being the better defender, and certainly the more impactful player through two games. This is something to watch as the season progresses.
Two bold predictions
Prediction 1: Tampa Bay beats Denver to go 3-0
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is off to a great start to the season. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix is off to an unlikely start in his NFL career. Through two games, the team’s first-round draft pick is completing 59.7 percent of his passes with zero touchdowns, four interceptions and four sacks.
Nix has certainly scored a rushing touchdown, and in fact has been the Broncos’ leading runner with 60 yards on nine passes through two games. It’s not a good sign for a rookie QB to not be able to rely on the running game, and it’s also not a good sign for a rookie QB to face Todd Bowles’ exotic pressure packages and fake coverages. I expect the Buccaneers to start 3-0 and come away with a big win.
Prediction 2: Buccaneers running game bounces back against Broncos
The good news for Tampa Bay is that Rachad White’s groin injury suffered early in the Detroit game is not serious and he should be available Sunday when Denver comes to town. With White and Bucky Irving, the Buccaneers should be able to rush for over 100 yards again and have a resurgence in the ground game.
The Broncos boast the league’s 24th-ranked rushing defense through two weeks, allowing 143.5 rushing yards per game, and on Sunday the Buccaneers could produce their first 100-yard rusher of the season.
