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A day after the Writers Guild of America called for a strike on May 1, a dozen or so members of the Set Decorators’ Society met to share information. Staffing discussions kicked off in a Zoom meeting, and Pam Elyea, owner of LA-based prop house History for Hire, had to lay off a receptionist and drum technician in March in anticipation of a work stoppage. said there wasn’t. Others nodded, reflecting sentiment that they could not afford to keep all the staff in the face of what was expected to be a prolonged strike: “We were saving money, but what? Every time we get together, something happens,” he says Elyea.
When Leiter manned picket lines 15 years ago, the impact of a 100-day outage was about $2 billion ($2.8 billion in 2023 dollars). Kevin Crowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute, predicts that the economic losses this time around could be even greater and will be felt more quickly, adding that the previous work stoppage caused roughly the same amount of damage to the California economy. It points to a think-tank estimate that gave “Can we see more? Absolutely,” Crowden says.
Hollywood pours millions of dollars a day into hotels, restaurants, construction companies, etc., not to mention salaries from the workers who support these sectors. Shooting one major film production on location contributes $250,000 a day to the local economy, according to the studio lobby group, the Motion Picture Association. The last writers’ strike took a toll on California’s struggling finances, costing writers and production staff wages of $772 million, revenues from the various companies serving the industry of $981 million, The ripple effect cost the industry $1.3 billion. Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation estimates it could have benefited from lost wages (these figures are not adjusted for inflation).
People picket outside Paramount Pictures Studios during a Hollywood writers strike on May 4, 2023 in Los Angeles.
David Mcnew/Getty Images
Of course, the economic impact of this work stoppage will depend on how long it lasts. At this early stage, industry insiders declined to speculate on the depth of the economic impact, but note that the strike is positioned to last at least as long as the last strike. In its May 4 forecast, Moody’s Investors Service noted that “a protracted strike lasting more than six months could hurt many media companies,” adding: Shows a negative reaction to rerunning the library. ”
The Writers Guild and the Motion Picture and Television Producers Coalition, which is negotiating on behalf of the studios, have so far refused to yield positions on the level and type of compensation as distribution models change in a rapidly evolving streaming ecosystem. doing. Additionally, studios want the flexibility to incorporate technological advances such as AI into the scriptwriting process, while unions want protection against such integration. Minimum staffing is also on the agenda.
As many as 20,000 workers in 600 productions could be out of work, according to AMPTP. About $81 billion in direct wages could be lost from his 800,000 jobs in the film and television industry if the strike continues. The late night show is already over, saturday night live, the story and hackamong others.
“Even if the strike ends, it will have ripple effects across the country,” says Jonathan Kuntz, a film historian at the UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television. “It’s going to impact Southern California in the billions.”
Workers in Los Angeles, whose jobs depend directly on filming, have been feeling the effects of the strike for months. showed a sharp decline. This runs counter to historical trends that show studios accelerated production ahead of deadlines for potentially strikeable content. The first quarter, which ended in March, saw him down 24% from the same period last year, when Los Angeles was enjoying historic levels of production, according to permitting group FilmLA.
This could indicate that the surge in production in 2022, caused by a huge backlog of content bogged down by the pandemic, may have overlapped in part with studios preparing to strike. But the belt has tightened in recent months as Wall Street has turned its back on sultry models, and may have contributed to the drop in production starting this year. Last week, Scripted Television He had only six permits issued by FilmLA for his content (it’s unclear if they went ahead with filming). The influence is not limited to Los Angeles, but extends to major production hubs in Georgia and New York. “All TVs are shut down,” says Chase Helzer of Atlanta-based prop company Bridge Furniture & Props.
The Writers Guild of America and its supporters picket outside Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles on May 3, 2023.
Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images
And if the writers’ strike continues, Hollywood’s daily life is poised to change dramatically. “Agents were like, ‘Are you going to Cabo?!’ The number of writers diligently writing and submitting scripts for new ongoing projects by midnight on May 1, when the strike officially began.
Both the writer and the studio have indicated they intend to play the long game.The WGA claimed AMPTP offered $86 million and requested $429 million in funding. When he splits that between the eight major studios and streamers (Disney, Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount, Sony, NBCUniversal, Amazon, and Apple), it’s about $50 million each. AMPTP offers an alternative explanation, arguing that their minimum wage proposal is worth about $97 million a year instead of $41 million a year.
But negotiations go beyond rewards, and important philosophical differences separate the two sides. The WGA argued that AMPTP completely thwarted the Guild’s proposal to enact a minimum room size and minimum employment period for writers. After negotiations broke down on May 1, the studio first broke its silence on Thursday, claiming that the proposal would result in extra hiring of writers, which “equates to hiring quotas that are at odds with the creative nature of the industry.” On the issue of AI, AMPTP did not mention the guilds that are trying to stop literary works from being written or rewritten by this technology, and to stop them from creating source material. “Writers want to be able to use this technology as part of their creative process,” he stressed, instead raising legal issues about copyright protection for such material.
For studios and streamers at the negotiating table, a strike could be good for their bottom line. We’ve come to say we’re in cost-cutting mode. In the short term, they won’t have to pay writers and producers for their late-night shows, and are more likely to ask employees to work fewer hours and stop paying producers, or at least reduce them.
If the strike is prolonged, the studio will force majeure The clause typically occurs in eight weeks, offloading the expensive overall deal, according to lawyers familiar with the contract. During the final strike, ABC Studios terminated the development contracts of about 20 writers and non-writing producers who were not working on major series. “If they have to stop working for a few months, studios will eventually sort out their balance sheets the way Wall Street demanded,” said the founder of production label Bull’s Eye Entertainment. and crash“In a perverse way, we are serving their needs rather than acting against their interests.”
Members of the Writers Guild of America and their supporters picket outside Universal Studios in Universal City on May 3, 2023.
Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images
Companies may also look to mergers in the perception that they will reduce costs. Top notch his VFX supervisor project ‘could see more consolidation’ [of VFX facilities], or some of them are out of business. ”
Another theory (of many) is that the writers could gain clout as the strike progresses and threatens fall television for broadcast networks. takes place in the summer. Television could bear the brunt of a long-term strike as the streamer is more flexible with his schedule. Only one thing is certain this time. “It doesn’t compare to 2007,” says the leading showrunner, nodding to the kickoff of the final strike. “2007 is going to look strange.”
The strike’s impact on production may also be mitigated to some extent by the streamer’s global footprint. The pandemic has proven that Netflix can get content from South Korea.After the breakout success of viral series like squid game, glory and Physical: 100, Netflix announced in April that it will spend $2.5 billion domestically over the next four years to produce local TV series, movies and unscripted shows. International crews other than members of the Writers Guild of Canada are also outside the jurisdiction of the WGA (WGC instructs members to follow her WGA strike rules).
Gov. Gavin Newsom said at the Milken Institute Global Conference on May 2 that he would step in to broker negotiations “as long as both sides are willing and interested.”[The strike] have direct or indirect serious consequences. Each of us will be affected by this. Both sides have been dug in, and the stakes are high, so I’m very concerned about what’s going on. ”
Nothing is certain, except that the work stoppage will cost a lot as Hollywood-dependent industry insiders, crew members and business owners assess the likely impact of the strike. The only question now is how much?
“Most of us barely made it through COVID, but now we’re staring at this,” said Dan Schultz, vice president of Prop Heaven at the SDSA conference. It wouldn’t surprise me if I didn’t.”
Lesley Goldberg, Carolyn Giardina, and Lacey Rose contributed to this report.
A version of this story appears in the May 10th issue of The Hollywood Reporter Magazine. Click here to subscribe.